On December 20, 2019, the second session of the National Council of Public Trust (NCPT) was held in Astana under the personal chairmanship of Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev. In his speech, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan announced the decisions, intentions and promises that have divided the politically oriented Kazakhs into two groups.

The first group (let us call it «the optimists») assesses the President’s speech on what is to be done following the demands of the civic society as a certain step towards political reforms. The second group (let’s call it «the pessimists») categorically disagrees with this opinion. With that, both groups have enough reasons to think that their opinion is the right one.

In our opinion, Kasym-Zhomart Yokayev really did make a step albeit not towards the liberalization but to the fashioning of the existing political system into something more or less presentable. And this alone is a good thing since a significant part of the ruling elite is striving to preserve its exclusive status-quo, the spheres of influence and impunity.

We have no doubt — all that Tokayev has promised at the second NCPT session will, sooner or later, be accomplished by the authorities. If only because such political decisions are made by the current President of the Republic of Kazakhstan not singlehandedly and not in a random manner but withing the framework of the standard procedure. This procedure was very meticulously polished a long time ago. The only change that has been made in it after the handing over the presidential chair from Nazarbayev to Tokayev is the appearance of one more agency — «the Library» that, by the looks of it, does not actively participate in the decision-making process but retains the power of veto. Therefore, all that Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev said on December 20, 2019, was sanctioned (if not approved) by «the Library» and the Leader of the Nation himself.

Nonetheless, there is one circumstance that we think is worthy of attention. (And we are not sure «the Library» fully comprehends the importance of this matter). The thing is that, in the eyes of the civic society, the automatic positioning of the ruling centers of power (and the persons associated with them) as being in the right or in the wrong is one of the unavoidable consequence of the duality of power in a state.

Now then, if, before, Kazakhstan had only one center of power represented by Nursultan Nazarbayev; the center that was perceived with «the positive sign» so to speak, that was supported and promoted by the entire state machine and the pro-government press, today, the situation has changed in a cardinal manner. Because, by supporting and promoting the Leader of the Nation’s successor, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, that same state machine and the pro-government press is assigning «the positive sign» to him and not to the former President.

Obviously, this process has only just begun but it is already happening. And, in our opinion, it will invariably end with Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev securing the status of the winner (for it is he who is announcing the reforms, half-baked that they are) whereas the First President Nursultan Nazarbayev will end up as the «loser».

To confirm our prognostication, we will, first of all, cite the history of the USSR and the CPSU when Mikhail Gorbachev lost to Boris Yeltsin in terms of the opinion of the civic society. Second, we will cite the comments of the civic activists written on the Azattyk website following the second NCPT session.

Here is a quote from the article «Cosmetic Changes vs. Steps to the Reforms. Opinions on the «Tokayev» Council» (text in bold by kz.expert). 

«According to activist Zhanbolat Mamay, «the trust council» is trying to limit itself to «cosmetic reforms». Mamay who, this summer, expressed a skeptical opinion in regard to creating this consultative/advisory body under the President says that «his doubts have been fully confirmed».

— Today’s session has demonstrated that Tokayev does not have enough willpower to conduct political reforms, he has not enough political weight. Of course, Head of the Security Council Nursultan Nazarbayev, even though he did leave the presidential post, will not grant him such an opportunity. The amnesty of political prisoners was one of the main demands of the society.

There was a demand that the next parliamentary elections were held fairly, that the opposition parties were allowed to participate in them. The suggested cosmetic changes will not help implementing either of these demands. The legal norm on «the institute of parliamentary opposition» gives no hope to the truly opposing parties. Because, even as we speak, there are people in the Parliament that consider themselves an «opposition».  Nothing will change if this is secured on paper», says he».

«Critic of the authorities Zhasaral Kuanyshalin calls Tokayev’s NSPT initiatives «political populism» and an attempt to gain points.

— Tokayev knows how dissatisfied people were at the time of the presidential elections. However, he cannot go against Nursultan Nazarbayev’s will. Therefore, he remains between Scylla and Charybdis. Tokayev has announced the «hearing state» concept. Having watched today’s session, I doubt they are hearing the people», says Kuanyshalin».

«On the eve of the session of the «public trust council», member of the council Mukhtar Tayzhan wrote on Facebook: «In short, tomorrow’s the H-hour. We have put here our reputation for the sake of the reforms in the country, for the sake of our children, basically. Tomorrow we will learn who was right And if it turns out that, in a three-months’ time, we will be able to solve at least one problem that the opposition has not been able to solve for decades (say, meetings (regulatory approval system), freedom of speech (Article 130 of the Criminal Code), political prisoners (Article 174 of the Criminal Code), the impossibility for political prisoners to find a job after being released from prison (we have more than 2 thousands of such people), political parties (liberalization of the legislature), the elections (new legislature), the opposition (the official status), then I hope our critics will be able to find the courage to make public apologies».

It is not hard to notice the commonalities in the words of the three aforementioned civic activists each of whom represents a certain generation of the protest-oriented Kazakhs (Zhasaral Kuanyshalin represents the older generation, Mukhtar Tayzhan represents the middle generation and Zhanbolat Mamay represents the younger generation):

• first, a certain unspoken support of Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev who a) does not have enough political weight to conduct political reforms and b) is limited in his actions by Nursultan Nazarbayev;
• second, the statement that Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev a) knows how dissatisfied people are but, nonetheless, b) cannot go against Nursultan Nazarbayev and c) therefore is positioned between Scylla and Charybdis;
• third, the hope that, thanks to Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, they will be able to achieve what the opposition hasn’t been able to achieve for twenty years.

In other words, in the eyes of the civic society, the second President of the Republic of Kazakhstan is already starting to be assessed as a «good» statesman even though he is weak politically and completely depends on his predecessor. Nonetheless, he is, so to speak, «a good guy» whereas the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan is starting to be associated with «a negative sign», among other things, due to the fact that he impedes on Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev listening to the voice of the people and following the will of the latter.

Obviously, both the first and the second are but political myths, nonetheless, they are being formed now and, in time, will start influencing the collective conscience of the Kazakhs.

And then, we will observe an interesting phenomenon when, in the eyes of most Kazakhs (and not just the civic activists), Nursultan Nazarbayev whose personality cult is now being actively promoted and supported by the efforts of the authoritarian political regime and the «super-presidential vertical» will start to turn into a bad ruler even while he is alive.

And not so much because he is truly guilty of the people’s misfortunes but because, in the pair «Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev — Nursultan Nazarbayev», the former will secure «the good guy» status, the latter — «the bad guy» status. Therefore, all the good things done by the authorities will strengthen the image of the former while all the bad things done by the authorities will damage the reputation of the latter. And it will not be possible to remedy the situation via even a most prolific Nazarbayev’s glorification simply because you can’t gag every mouth.