On December 2, 2019, Kazakhstan experienced an event that is likely to remain unnoticed beyond the country’s borders but may lead to some tectonic movements inside the ruling elite. We are talking about the opening of a new mosque in town Saryagash of the Turkestan region or, to be more precise, the Islamic Center named after Satybaldy Abishuly.

The press-release of the Spiritual Administration of the Muslims of Kazakhstan (SAMK) emphasizes the uniqueness of the building’s architecture and informs that (text in bold by kz.expert) «those participating in the opening ceremony included — guest from Turkey Necmettin Erdogan Bilal, Adviser of the Head of the Chechen Republic Amruddin Edilgerev, Governor of the Turkestan region Umirzak Shukeyev, Head of the Spiritual Administration of the Muslims of Kazakhstan, Supreme Mufti Serikbay kazhy Oraz, Mifti of Uzbekistan Osmankhan kazhy Alimov, Mifti of Kyrgyzstan Maksatbek kazhy Toktomushev, former Mufti Erzhan kazhy Malgazhyuly, First Naib Mufti, the Head Imam of Nur-Sultan Nauryzbay kazhy Taganuly, Naib Mufti Ershat kazhy Agybayuly, Head of the SAMK Apparatus Gylymbek Zhadygeruly and other representatives of the clergy, intelligentsia and Jamaat».

Some materials on the SAMK website are devoted to the speeches made at the opening ceremony by Mufti of Kyrgyzstan Maksatbek kazhy Toktomushev and Governor of the Turkestan region Umirzak Shukeyev.

By the looks of it, the building really is impressive and not just in terms of its form but its size as well (quoting): …10 thousand people can simultaneously perform Namaz at the Islamic Center of Satybaldy Abishuly. The mosque includes 29 classrooms for madrassah students. 600 children can attend classes at the Center. The Center also has a dormitory that can accommodate 69 people and a cafeteria for 1000 persons».

In our opinion, this event goes beyond the scope of a purely religious and regional phenomenon for the following reasons.

First, the Islamic Center is named after Satybaldy Adishuly, the brother of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Leader of the Nation Nursultan Nazarbayev. He is also the father of Kazakhstan’s famous entrepreneur Kayrat Satybaldy and First Deputy Chief of the National Security Committee General-Lieutenant Samat Abish. From this, we may conclude with confidence that it was these two who were the commissioners and the sponsors of the new mosque creation.

Second, the two foreign guests (Necmettin Erdogan Bilal from Turkey and Adviser of the Head of the Chechen Republic Amruddin Edilgerev from Chechnya) were the first names on the list of the honorary guests at the Islamic Center opening ceremony. With that, the press-release of the SAMK, with all its love for big words, does not say that the former is, most likely, a son of Turkish President Recep Erdogan and the latter was probably representing his boss, President of the Chechen Republic of the Russian Federation Ramzan Kadyrov.

Third, we believe that by constructing a new mosque of a particularly large size and architectural merits not in their homeland, the Almaty region, but in town Saryagash of the Turkestan region, Kayrat Satybaldy and Samat Abish demonstrate their desire to become the unofficial leaders of the country’s Muslim community or at least of a part of the latter. And the fact that the son of the Turkish President and a representative of the President of Chechnya were present at the launch of their project testifies to the support of the two rather influential external players.

Fourth, the Muslim community of the region is undergoing some processes invisible to external observers. This can be seen from the presence of the representatives of Turkey and Chechnya (where Islam has its own «traits») and the Heads of the Spiritual Administrations of the Muslims of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as a «united» team at the opening ceremony of the Islamic Center (built in part on the commission and the money of Kayrat Satybaldy whose religious views, at least in the past, can be very well characterized as sectarian). On the other hand, we cannot articulate what these processes are simply because this sphere lies beyond the scope of our interest and expertise.

As for the participation of Governor of the Turkestan region Umirzak Shukeyev, on one hand, it seemed to have been a gesture of courtesy on the part of the head of the region towards the commissioners and the sponsors of the project. On the other hand, it could have been a gesture of curtesy on the part of the latter towards the head of the region. But we cannot say which one of these gestures was the initial one and which one was a reaction.

Of course, we do not exclude the possibility that Shukeyev, who, over the past years, has lost a lot of his influence in the ruling elite is now, amid the internal political transition, thinking of strengthening the position of the «Southern» clan in the power layout especially since Kayrat Satybaldy and Samat Abish represent one of the most influential clan within the Most Important Family of the country.

In conclusion, let us remark that, lately, Kayrat Satybaldy has been trying to stay away from the public attention as much as possible. For instance, he has suddenly «disappeared» from Kaspi Bank (see Kaspi Bank’s Big Success  and On Satybaldy and His Exit From Kaspi Bank). Moreover, he has disappeared from the Forbes Kazakhstan rating of the most influential businessmen (compare this rating with this one (texts available in Russian).

All this makes one think — what if he is preparing for a jump-up?

It is quite possible that the opening of the Islamic Center of Satybaldy Abishuly serves as a certain step into the future when Chief of the NSC and newly-minted politician Samat Abish will on occasion decide to participate in the early presidential elections and a significant part of the Islam clergy and activists will start campaigning for him. And this will predetermine his victory as someone who, on one hand, is bound to continue the line of policy pursued by Nursultan Nazarbayev, and on the other hand — in terms of his biography and ironfisted methods — closely resembles one secret service native, Vladimir Putin.