The Nur Otan Party is one of the key domestic policy instruments that Nursultan Nazarbayev has retained after leaving the post of the state leader. The Kazakh people’s attitude to this party can be described as indifferent and scornful since it is but a characterless, inactive structure. Nonetheless, it is still not to be dismissed.

Amid the inter-elite meltdown that escalated many years ago when it became clear that the idea of transforming the country into a hereditary monarchy was not supported by the democracies around the world and, therefore, was not to be put into practice, Nursultan Nazarbayev had to come up with other ways to ensure the continuity of power, The currently existing two-headed model of the authoritarian system and the «super-presidential vertical» is a result of these efforts.

There can be no doubt that this model is temporary and will exist only until the Leader of the Nation is alive and kicking. But as soon as he passes away or looses the physical ability to participate in the internal political process and perform the role of the main arbiter in the inter-elite balances, the Nur Otan party may become the most important venue where Akorda’s and «the Library’s» key residents will decide who is to inherit the power.

Since, at a crucial moment (when the matter of supreme power will become relevant not only on paper but in real life), there will be no time for the complex inter-elite squabbles, the bureaucratic formalities and the party procedures are bound to play a certain part in the development of the inter-elite conflict. We are talking about the formalities and procedures that, today, look too unimportant and not worthy of attention.

For instance, let’s take the provision that Nur Otan’s President as the leader of the party has truly dictator-like authorities (Section 9.2 of the Rules) but, nonetheless, must be elected at a Party congress (Section 9.1 of the Rules). Clearly, while Nazarbayev is still alive, these two provisions represent a purely academic matter described on paper. However, when the Leader of the Nation departs from this world, these norms may «begin to sparkle» in a very different light. If only because, today, all the statesmen of the highest, high and medium ranks, including the current President, are the members of the Nur Otan Party.

Apart from that, this party «controls» both houses of the Kazakh Parliament and all the maslikhats (local representative bodies) without exception. Moreover, today, Nur Otan’s regional branches are headed by the governor of the regions in a mandatory fashion; while «commissars» (their first deputies down the party line) who are de-facto appointed by the First Deputy President of the Party (currently, this post belong to Bauyrzhan Baybek) operate together with the governors.  

When the chair of the President of the Nur Otan Party gets vacant, they will have to hold an urgent congress in order to elect a new leader. And Nur Otan may very well become the venue where the question that is crucial for the country, its people and the ruling elite will be decided.

Of course, after Nazarbayev’s passing, any turn of events is possible including the emergency scenario such as NSC opening criminal cases against certain members of the Political Council and its Bureau following the accusations of corruption and even high treason and their later isolation in pretrial detention facilities. However, in our opinion, it is the Political Council and the First Deputy President of Nur Otan that may get an opportunity to play the key role in the history of modern Kazakhstan.

In view of this, we cannot but notice the fact that the current First Deputy of Nur Otan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev is one of the Leader of the Nation’s closest allies.

Moreover, after his return to the Party, Bauyrzhan Baybek is actively renewing the corpus of the first deputies of the regional branches.

Of course, under the conditions of the authoritarian political regime and the «super-presidential vertical», the latter are clearly inferior to the regional governors — the leaders of Nur Otan’s branches in terms of their capabilities and the influence in the region. Nonetheless, given the adequate training and the direct order from the above, they may turn and have probably already turned into supervising officers working for Baybek. This kind of system of cross-monitoring goes back to the Soviet times and now has been revived in the form that is adequate for modern Kazakhstan.

So, it is very likely that the relaunch of the Nur Otan Party that the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Leader of the Nation has demanded to conduct and that is now being implemented by Bauyrzhan Baybek is a part of a secret sub-program of operations within the framework of the supreme power transition in the country. According to this sub-program, the ruling party must play the role of one of the balancers in the new inter-elite landscape that will be formed after Nazarbayev’s death.

On the whole, this looks like a logical and provident step on the part of Nazarbayev. Of course, as a rule, it is impossible to foresee everything in life, therefore, we believe many different scenarios are possible.

Starting with Nur Otan breaking down into several smaller structures each of which will have its own leader from among the current allies (relatives) of the Leader of the Nation and, therefore, will not be able to perform the role that has been assigned to it.

And finishing with Nur Otan scheduling new early presidential elections (under the leadership of Nazarbayev’s real successor) and nominating the Party’s leader as the candidate. Then, having won the national elections, the latter will become the new «Leader of the Nation» for 20-30 years to come.