On May 12, 2022, the Kazakh media citing the NSC press-service announced that the court had prolongated the period of detention of the NSC ex-chief Karim Masimov and his two former deputies, Anuar Sadykulov and Daulet Ergozhin.
The first two are to be detained until June 6, the latter – until June 13.
Incidentally, this information (as well as the previous announcements on prolongating the duration of Masimov’s arrest) is absent from the official NSC website. This allows us to conclude that, for some reason, the secret service has chosen to mention its former boss’ name as seldom as possible.
You will recall that we have commented on the topic of Masimov and the accusations against him brought by Akorda and Tokayev on numerous occasions. You can find the links to these articles below.
Satybaldy Gave Up, Masimov Did Not
On Masimov’s People and Kenes Rakishev (text available in Russian)
Announcing the prolongation of the duration of the NSC ex-chief’s arrest has sparked our desire to continue dwelling on the subject.
The thing is that, on the eve of the nationwide referendum on adopting the “historic” amendments to the Constitution of Kazakhstan (the amendments that have already been named after President Tokayev by certain sycophants), Karim Masimov, from a hostage to the internal political situation with his fate in Tokayev’s hands, has suddenly turned into a politician who has taken hostage the President himself.
Why do we think so?
The thing is that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is now trying his best to change his image as Nursultan Nazarbayev’s successor who has obtained supreme power in the country only because the “leader of the nation” trusted him more than any other (or was threatened by him less than by any other if you will). Tokayev wants to be viewed as a politician whom the traitors had tried to bring down and, when their coup failed, ignited the disturbances across the country.
Of course, those who follow the internal political developments in Kazakhstan and are familiar with the current elite landscape cannot but smile at this kind of mythmaking.
However, for quite a few Kazakhs (if not for most of them), this scenario may seem quite plausible. For, it is nice to think that your country is being governed by a strong, farseeing and wise man rather than some relic of the Nazarbayev era.
For Tokayev, the making of the myth and the implanting it into the minds of the people is not simply a way of satisfying his political ambition but an acute necessity. Because, without this myth, it will be impossible to preserve the Kazakh authoritarian political system and the “super-presidential” vertical as well as secure a footing at their top.
Apart from that, if Akorda fails to sell this myth to the Kazakhs, it will invariably face another myth – that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev put down the people’s protest by ordering the siloviks to shoot civilians without a warning and then inviting the CSTO forces or, rather, the Russians led by Vladimir Putin so that the President gets saved from the protestors.
For this reason, Karim Masimov, unexpectedly for himself and the members of his family, has turned into a politician who may play an important role in whichever myth is going be made faster, the first of the second one. And which one will eventually win over the public consciousness.
For, if the NSC ex-chief admits his guilt thus confirming the validity of the accusations against him and his henchmen, it will help Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to become the man who has saved his country from the traitors, criminals and corrupt officials that had not only wanted to strip him off his power but deprive him of the opportunity to serve his fellow citizens.
But, if Karim Masimov refuses to plead guilty (moreover, if his allies start leaking compromising materials against Tokayev and his circle as well as leaking the secrets of Nursultan Nazarbayev and those of his relatives that so far have been untouched by Tokayev), it will be a great help to the opponents of the current Kazakh President.
By their joint effort, they will manage to turn Tokayev into an enemy of the people prepared to go to any lengths not to hold Nazarbayev’s clan and Nazarbayev himself responsible for their infinite crimes.
We cannot predict which option Karim Masimov will choose.
In our opinion, he has three of them at this point -
a) to admit his guilt fully,
б) not to admit his guilt fully,
в) to admit guilt partly and only regarding laundering money or property obtained by illegal means (Article 218, Part 3, Section 3 of the Kazakh Criminal Code), abuse of authority resulting in grave consequences (Article 362, Part 4, Section 4 of the Kazakh Criminal Code) and receiving a bribe in an especially large amount (Article 366, Part 4 of the Kazakh Criminal Code).
Unfortunately, we do not know what confessions the investigators have already (if at all) managed to get from Karim Masimov and what is being discussed at the unofficial negotiations between Masimov’s and Tokayev’s representatives. However, it is quite clear that the second President is in a great need of the former head of the secret service admitting his guilt (for the reasons presented above). The question is – at what cost.
