KZ.expert‘s editorial team has learned about some new twists in the case of former NSC Chief Karim Masimov who has been arrested. As our insiders in the halls of power has informed us, the ex-leader of the secret service does not admit his guilt while his wife is being threatened with becoming a psycho-ward patient.
Even though forty days have already passed since Karim Masimov’s arrest, so far it has not been made clear what exactly the ex-chief of the NSC and his henchmen did that allowed the prosecution to deem their actions high treason.
Nonetheless, the fate of the man who, up until recently, has been part of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s immediate circle and occupied the top governmental positions is sealed. At least, for the next couple of years.
Of course, it does not at all mean that Karim Masimov won’t return to the country’s political front stage. Or, alternatively, won’t «commit suicide» in the NSC pre-trial detention centre.
Let us explain why we think so.
The thing is that, by dismissing Masimov from the post of the head of the country’s leading secret service and requesting to arrest him on charge of high treason and other sins, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has found the main scapegoat to blame for the January events. By doing so, however, he has created a huge problem for himself.
And this problem can be resolved to his advantage by one way only — by presenting an indisputable proof of Masimov’s (and his henchmen’s) guilt. And this proof should be convincing enough for the Kazakhs and foreign observers to swallow it.
However, there is no guarantee that the events are going to unfold in the said fashion. This, for instance, follows from Karim Masimov’s refusal to admit his guilt. KZ.expert has learned about this from our insiders in the halls of power.
And since the investigators are not daring to employ the standard Kazakh practice of beatings and torture against Masimov (probably because they understand how risky it is for them personally), they are exerting pressure on his family, first of all, his wife Dilyaram Masimova.
Dilyaram Masimova on the left, Dinara Kulibayeva in the center and Timur Kulibayev on the right.
First, they are surveilling her on the constant basis and are doing it openly so that she always feels uncomfortable.
Second, since the wife of the ex-chief of the NSC has never been in such a situation is now in an extremely stressful emotional state, they are threatening her with involuntary isolation in a psycho-ward where she will be forced to take strong drugs that may very well make her behaviour completely inadequate.
Third, they are not letting her leave the country.
Fourth, those left in her circle are experiencing hidden pressure as well.
Judging by the demands made on Karim and Dilyaram Masimovs, the NSC RK and its new leadership are trying to achieve the following:
- obtain the confession of the former NSC chief;
- through his wife, establish direct contacts with the people managing Karim Masimov’s fortune of billions, first and foremost, with dollar billionaire Aygul Nuriyeva.
Apart from that, the investigation is very interested in Masimov’s and his trusted persons’ past business-operations including those conducted in the banks he used to chair as well as in the United Arab Emirates.
We at KZ.expert believe that the likelihood of Karim Masimov pleading guilty of everything except perhaps ordering the staff of the agency to leave the building of the regional and municipal NSC departments and not to participate in the enforcement actions against the protestors is rather high.
Even though many people including two former NSC chiefs Alnur Musayev and Nartay Dutbayev describe Masimov as an extremely cautious man, it does not mean he is a coward. And, being a rather intelligent and experienced person, Karim Masimov probably understands full well that, by admitting he is guilty of high treason and by the following self-defamation, he will write off not only himself but also his closest relatives as well as will be forced to part with his fortune.
Whereas by refusing to admit his guilt and defame himself, Karim Masimov may gain what is most wanted in his situation — time. If only because it plays into his hand and not into the hand of his current archenemy — Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. For, there is a chance that the protest-minded Kazakh citizens whose number already consists of hundreds of thousands and, by the looks of it, is going to grow may be joined by the elite groups.
If they do join, it is not because they support democracy, civil rights and liberties but because they are already starting to feel the real threat of redistributing the property, if not to the benefit of Tokayev then to the benefit of the people who pledge their fealty to him. For, the current President of the Republic of Kazakhstan has already conducted a massive-scale redistribution of the spheres of influence in the economy taking them from the relatives and allies of Nursultan Nazarbayev to giving them to his own circle. And this fact has, undoubtedly, already been noticed by the ruling elite that is bound to respond to it.
However, if the events unfold in the way we have forecasted, the internal political situation in Kazakhstan may develop very differently than it is expected (in Akorda, for instance).
The empty accusations of Karim Masimov of the crimes he did not commit will serve as the indisputable proof that the authoritarian political system and the «super-presidential» vertical as well as the repressive political practices continue to rule the country albeit under a different leadership.
For this reason, we do allow for the possibility that the accusation of high treason may be lifted off Karim Masimov. At the same time, he will be convicted for other crimes. Or he will «commit suicide» in the NSC pre-trial detention centre not being able to bear his guilt before his people and his homeland (so to speak).
P.S. Incidentally, according to our insiders, former Deputy Chief of the NSC Daulet Ergozhin arrested significantly later than he was dismissed from his post is giving the testimony that the investigators and the people behind them are requesting him to give.
Whereas his former colleague Anuar Sadykulov is holding his own and, by the looks of it, will construe to do so. Even though the NSC RK has arrested two of his subordinates already, probably, in order to show their decisiveness and, at the same time, to make these people testify against their boss.
