Recently, Press-Secretary to the Kazakh President Berik Uali has written on his Facebook page that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is planning to address the nation not in the fall but this March. Probably, in order to lessen the degree of the civil dissent and to gain the support of the citizens.
We at KZ.expert believe Akorda is unlikely to achieve this. Therefore, only one thing will be of interest to us in the future address – will Tokayev continue insisting on the alien forces’ involvement in the January tragedy (the forces able to deploy 20 thousand terrorists)? Or will he eventually abandon this theory by replacing it with something a little closer to reality?
For, if the President of Kazakhstan continues insisting on the former, then, with his own hands, he will complete the planting of the bomb that, once blown, will be able to wipe off not only Tokayev himself but the existing structure of the authoritarian political system of the country.
The thing is that only the deaf and the blind believe the President’s theory today.
To confirm this, let us quote two people - a Kazakh blogger (a former diplomat) and the President of the Russian Federation.
Below you will find the opinion of Kazbek Beysebayev posted on his Facebook page.
‘Why are the authorities talking about a foreign intervention?
‘I believe there are certain reasons for that.
First, acknowledging that ordinary citizens were the driving force behind the protests means admitting that, through their policies, the authorities had driven the people to despair.
Second, acknowledging that a coup d’état attempt took place means confirming that the people from the country’s main citizen’s circle were behind it. And this would inflict a blow on the existing authorities and on the country’s image as well.
Third, the terrorist scenario settles the issue of bringing in the CSTO forces.
Fourth, the foreign terrorists and fighters theory allows to cloud the issue of the siloviks’ treachery and to conceal the chaos ruling these structures.
Fifth, the foreign terrorists theory allows to explain the use of firearms and to condone the violent measures employed against the civilians.
Sixth, it is better to stress the involvement of foreign terrorists than to acknowledge that these terrorists had been trained inside their own country.
So, basically, the ‘foreign terrorists’ theory allows the authorities to conceal the inconvenient truth.‘
As for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the former intelligence officer has, of course, expressed his verbal support for his Kazakh colleague. At the same time, he chose not to conceal his ironic attitude towards Kassym-Jomart’s Tokayev’s official version of the events.
Let us quote Akorda’s press-release (text in bold by KZ.expert).
‘Without any exaggeration, Kazakhstan has fallen victim to certain international gangs that had taken advantage of the difficult situation inside the country’.
Why do we choose to focus on this issue in particular and why do you think that the President of Kazakhstan is planting a bomb to blow up himself and the authoritarian political system?
Because now the President and his ‘super-presidential’ vertical will have to be proving their story on a constant basis not only to the Kazakh citizens but to the rest of the world.
And if Akorda and the siloviks will be in able to do so (though, in our opinion, they will not) it will mean that the foreign intervention that had served as the reason for inviting the CSTO forces into the country simply did not exist!
But, if this is so, then it means that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had invited the foreign military forces in the country for no good reason thus violating not only the basic principles of the CSTO operations but the Constitution of Kazakhstan as well. In other words, he committed high treason.
This is the very crime of which he and his team, with Nursultan Nazarbayev’s approval, are accusing former Chief of the NSC Karim Masimov and his real and imaginary henchchmen.
You will say that the President’s involvement in high treason is yet to be proved. To this we will respond that now anything is possible in Kazakhstan including the launch of the impeachment proceedings.
To confirm this, let us quote Article 26 of Chapter 4 of the Kazakh constitutional law on the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan titled ‘Early Release, Impeachment of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan’ -
‘1. The President may be released from their duties early via the decision of the Parliament in view of the President’s permanent inability to perform the presidential responsibilities due to an illness. The procedure occurs according to the order determined by law.
2. The President is held responsible for the actions committed while on duty only in the case of high treason, in other words, a voluntary action committed for the purpose of weakening or destroying the state’s safety and the sovereignity of the republic of Kazakhstan via taking the side of the enemy at the time of war or a military conflict or assisting a foreign state in conducting unfriendly operations against Kazakhstan and may be impeached by the Parliament according to the procedure determined by law.
3. The question of impeaching the President cannot be raised when the President is reviewing the issue of the dissolution of the Parliament or of the Mazhilis of the Parliament’.
It is not hard to notice that, if some forces capable of taking down the current President of Kazakhstan are formed within the ruling elite or in the Kazakh society, they will only have two options for legal action (apart from the use of force) -
- either to insist that he is incapable of performing the presidential duties for health reasons;
- or to accuse him of high treason due to inviting the foreign military troops in the country without foundation.
Of course, there is a chance that none of this happens. However, it is already clear that a massive scale hatred towards those who have shot, killed, slaughtered and tortured is brewing within the depths of the country. It is that very same hatred it is still raging Zhanaozhen even though a decade has passed since the events of December 2011.
And we (KZ.expert) have no doubt that, little by little, this hatred will get focused on the person who, being the head of the state, had ordered the siloviks to shoot with no warning and then allowed to conduct violent reppressions against his fellow citizens.
So, in our opinion, there is a great chance that this hatred will eventually break cover. And then perhaps Tokayev will become the first President of Kazakhstan who will be sent to prison or will have to flee the country in order to save himself.
