On September 1, 2020, at the joint meeting of the Chambers of the Kazakh Parliament, President Kossym-Jomart Tokayev gave his second Address to the people of Kazakhstan pretentiously titled “Kazakhstan in the New Reality: Time To Act”.

Akorda’s official press-release underscores that “the Head of the state suggested a series of initiatives aimed to increase the effectiveness of the governance system, the economy existing in the new realia, the expansion of the industrial potential, the development of agriculture, the transport/logistic complex, small and medium-size businesses, the financial sphere, the modernisation of the country’s territorial development and the improvement of the social welfare of the Kazakh citizens”.

Moreover, the document states that the Address represents no less than “the strategy for the country’s further development”

In our opinion, Kossym-Jomart Tokayev’s 88 minute speech represent no such thing. Albeit it does deserve the citizens’ attention since it testifies to the fact that the state has tried to hear them. Of course, as per usual, Akorda and the Library have chosen to implement only the ideas and suggestions of a tactical, non-essential nature and those that can be carried out without much effort, active participation of the people and without doing damage to the authoritarian political system and the “super-presidential” vertical in general.

As a result, Mr. Tokayev’s second Address to the people of Kazakhstan comes off as populistic and bureaucratic. And the fact that it is not just an impression can be confirmed by the three important circumstances:

first, it contains a huge list of problems, questions and topics,

second, no cardinal decisions that have long been demanded by the time and the society are proposed

third, the Address does not touch upon the basic principles on which the Kazakh political system is founded.

We see no point in analysing the Address via the traditional methods, in other words, by assessing the expediency, soundness and feasibility of Tokayev’s individual orders, requests and decisions since it will invariably get us trapped – the commentator will simply “drown” in details and particulars of the speech.

In our opinion, what is of the principal importance here is the fact that Kossym-Jomart Tokayev has spoken to the people of Kazakhstan in order to calm them, to give them hope and provide assurance, to urge them to support the state and those who are governing the county today and not to wake them up and turn them into the driving force of the country’s development. It is for this reason that many a Kazakh political experts, bloggers and civil activists are feeling cheated.

It it unlikely they were expecting Nursultan Nazarbayev’s successor at the presidential post to announce the start of a perestroika a la Gorbachev but they were probably still hoping that this presidential address would correspond to the complexity of the time and current problems faced by the country and society and propose at least some solutions to the new challenges.

Alas, this didn’t happen. And is unlikely to happen during the lifetime of the Elbasy and the presidency of Tokayev who, essentially, is but a seat warmer. In other words, he is a person who is acting as the President of the country for the period of time needed for the ruling elite to agree upon who is to rule the country after Nursultan Nazarbayev’s passing and who is to lead it further.

As for the Presidential Address pretentiously titled “Kazakhstan in the New Reality: Time To Act”, it is to become yet another “policy paper” that is going to be implemented until the next address is given. And this mechanism will exist in Kazakhstan until the country undergoes the cardinal political changes (reforms).

There is only one thing that concerns us – due to the sharp aggravation of the international situation and the escalation of the conflict between the US and the West on one side and Russia and China on the other, Kazakhstan is to find itself not a just a hostage of the situation but a territory that will have to find ways to simply survive and not to search for a road to a happy future.