In the last article of the series on the unexpected dismissal of Dariga Nazarbayeva from the position of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament, we will provide an answer to the question what threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan?
Let us remind you that, in the first article of the series, we have formulated the four questions that interest everyone who follows the events happening in the internal policy and the elite power balance in Kazakhstan.
Here are these questions.
- Who exactly made the decision on dismissing Ms. Nazarbayeva — her father, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, or his successor at the presidential post Kossym-Jomart Tokayev?
- What was it that had caused the dismissal?
- Who will replace the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter at the post of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament thus taking up the third official position in the state hierarchy?
- What threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan?
Now the answers to all these questions have been given.
There can be no doubt that the decision on Dariga Nazarbayeva’s dismissal was made by her father, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the «Leader of the Nation» with the active participation of several allies including the acting President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kossym-Jomart Tokayev.
Of course, it is still unclear who had lobbied the matter.
With that, as it is customary for such cases, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s decision was of a mixed nature. But the political motives definitely had an upper hand in it. Note that the Leader of the Nation was, first of all, driven by his own interests and not by the interests of his eldest daughter.
As for who would replace Dariga Nazarbayeva as the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament and what the chain of the following personnel moves would be, it all became known on Monday, May 4th 2020.
Thus, we have the answers to the these first questions and only one question is left to be answered — what threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan?
If the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter will contain her political ambitions and swallow the feelings hurt by her father, then, in our opinion, she has northing to fear.
Why do we think so?
The thing is that Nursultan Nazarbayev had shamelessly used his eldest daughter in order to solve an important political task; and as soon as this task had been solved, he removed Dariga from the political stage.
In other words, regardless of what Dariga Nursultanovna is thinking or feeling at this moment, regardless of whether she actually wanted to become the next leader of the Kazakh state to not, she was nothing but a participant of an internal political play. Therefore, the principal director of this play cannot hold a grudge against her for she did perform her part albeit not without notable losses for herself and her clan.
In order to clarify the logic of our thought, let us imagine the internal political space of the country as the sky space over Almaty. Note that the largest residential area of the country is usually covered with the smog through which one can see everything above including the flying planes. But, from the above, from the board of the plane, the sight underneath is much less clear. But everything that goes on on the place cannot be hidden from those on board.
So, let us imagine that the plane is the ruling power of Kazakhstan that includes the main residents of the Library and Akorda and their allies. Last year, Nursultan Nazarbayev handed the control wheel over to Kossym-Jomart Tokayev. However, he has remained on «board» in the capacity of the «commander» of the plane and he will leave the plane on the occasion of his physical death only. With that, the Leader of the Nation did not know how those on the «ground» and those on «board» would react to the news that he was no longer the first pilot.
Someone else’s soul is obscure as we know and history, particularly the history of the Soviet Union, teaches us that high-rank state leaders should trust no one, especially those who are close to them and who claim their love and loyalty. Therefore, when Nursultan Nazarbayev was no longer physically capable of performing the role of the «first pilot» and was forced to hand his chair and the control wheel over to Kossym-Jomart Tokayev, he being an experiences and cynical politician, chose to be on the safe side and put his eldest daughter in the «second pilot’s» chair.
Dariga Nazarbayeva has never been a strong manager or a statesperson but, in this instance, the fact that, apart from her father, no one could pressure, bribe or threaten her served as her main virtue. Apart from that, she, at any given moment, could take over the presidential chair — the fact that supposed to seriously sober up the Leader of the Nation’s successor and his allies.
Now then, a year after the control wheel had been handed over, it became clear that everything was more or less all right. Yes, the coronavirus pandemics, the collapse of the world oil prices and several serious accidents have hit the country hard, however, the authoritarian system and the «super presidential» vertical have, on the whole, survived the shift of power. The country didn’t even experience serious public disturbances — just several incidents that, with all their notoriety in the information space, did not grow into anything comparable to the events in Shanghai or Zhanaozen.
Under these circumstances, the commander of the «aircraft» has made a decision to dismiss his daughter who, with her activity and interference in the spheres where she should logically not interfere in, has started to seriously irritate everyone or almost everyone on the «board» of the plane.
In their turn, the Kazakh citizens standing on the «ground» and seeing the aircraft above (since they lacked any information from the board of the aircraft that the «second pilot» had been suddenly dismissed from her post) had immediately started to make all kinds of guesses. Even allowing for the possibility that Dariga Nazarbayeva will rebel or that Kossym-Jomart Tokayev has already become the commander of the plane.
Alas, all this was just a dream and nothing more. In reality, everything is much simpler — the «father» has sent his «daughter» from the sky back to the ground, that’s all. She is not going to lose anything — neither her fortune nor her clan and influence. But this, let us repeat, will only happen if she accepts and agrees with her father’s decision.
In our opinion, is has already happen.
