On Saturday, May 2, 2020, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kossym-Jomart Tokayev made a «present» to his fellow citizens by dismissing Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament Dariga Nazarbayeva. Or, to be more precise, he terminated her authorities as a senator for which he had every right since she’s got her mandate as part of the so called presidential quota.

Now, after the May 1^st celebration, the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament will release Nursultan Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter from the responsibilities of the speaker at its very first session.

This development, in our opinion, can very well be called the sensation of the year. Not surprisingly, an information storm has immediately broken out on social media and, as part of it, the numerous local «experts» in the field of coronavirus and the national economic reforms have returned to a more familiar sphere of domestic policy.

Primarily, these four questions are being discussed. 

1. Who exactly made the decision on dismissing Ms. Nazarbayeva — her father, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, or his successor at the presidential post Kossym-Jomart Tokayev?
2. What was it that had caused the dismissal?
3. Who will replace the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter at the post of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament thus taking up the third official position in the state hierarchy?
4. What threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan? 

With a high level of probability (close to 100%) we can state that the decision to dismiss Dariga Nazarbayeva from the position of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament has been made by her father. Any other scenario simply cannot exist within the framework of the Kazakh authoritarian political system and the «super-presidential» vertical.

Of course, we do allow for the possibility that the decision could be made by Tokayev as well, but this would be possible under one condition only — if his predecessor was already dead or was in such a critical state that he was certainly never going to return to political activities. However, judging by the information that we have, the Leader of the Nation is still very much alive and continues to «rule» the country with an active aid of his current team.

As for the answer to the second question, only Nursultan Nazarbayev and perhaps several other persons with whom he had probably consulted, discussed the possible consequences and the measures necessary to prevent a negative outcome of the events can say what was the real cause of Dariga Nazarbayeva’s dismissal.

This several persons definitely include President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kossym-Jomart Tokayev, Chief of the NSC Karim Masimov, Secretary of Security Council Aset Isekeshev, Head of the State Security Service Kalmukhanbet Kasymov, Prime Minister Askar Mamin, Aide to the Leader of the Nation of the Republic of Kazakhstan Abay Bisembayev.

As for the fact that problems could have arisen, the circumstances under which Tokayev’s decision to terminate Nazarbayeva’s authorities as a deputy had been made and announced clearly show that this was possible.

Let us start by saying that, in our opinion, Dariga Nazarbayeva was either unaware that she was going to lose her deputy’s authorities and leave the chair of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament or she was aware of that but categorically disagreed with her father’s decision.

Two facts clearly testify to that.

First, instead leaving quietly after requesting a resignation due to health reasons, or to a decision to receive another college degree, or to the desire to devote more time to her family, children and grandchildren, or to the calling to pursue a professional singing career (underline as appropriate), she was literally booted out. It is not simply humiliating, it is also dangerous since it shows that she has fallen out of graces.

Second, she was active in the internal political field and was fully sure of herself only a couple of days prior to her dismissal.

Apart from that, it is not enough that Kossym-Jomart Tokayev’s order on terminating her deputy’s authorities was signed and published on a non-business day (Saturday), it was published on a holiday, May 2, 2020.

This seems quite rational from the ensuring the internal political stability standpoint since, on this day, the mobility of the population (including the sincere supporters of the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter if, course, such do exist in the country) will be four times slower than on a working day. Therefore, the citizens are unlikely to self organise and take to streets protesting especially considering that the emergency rule and the quarantines remain in force (yes, they have been eased up but they nonetheless still exist).

As for the third question — who will replace the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter at the post of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament thus taking up the third official position in the state hierarchy — again, only Nursultan Nazarbayev and those few who consulted him can answer that.

In our opinion, any adult Kazakh citizen with exception of the three people — the Leader of the Nation himself, Kossym-Jomart Tokayev and Dariga Nazarbayeva — can become both a new deputy of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament and the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament.

There is no point in explaining why we think so. In theory, Nursultan Nazarbayev may even declare his favourite horse a human being and make it the head of the Senate. However, we dare say that the new Speaker of the Senate is going to be a male, an ethnic Kazakh who speaks Russian and Kazakh freely, who is older than 35 and is related to the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The answer to the fourth question will depend on how Dariga Nazarbayeva will respond to what’s happened. Therefore, we will put it aside for the moment and go back to it in our next publication.

In the meantime, we are going to follow the development of the internal political situation very closely especially since it is getting increasingly interesting. The stakes of the transition are rising and it looks like Kazakhstan is out of luck yet again — the disintegration of the former authoritarian model of power and the forming of a new one is now added to the coronavirus pandemics and the collapse of the world oil prices.  

What kind of a new model — we are yet to see.