The dull pre-election activities in Kazakhstan are reminiscent of a poorly directed stage play performed by bad actors and without any enthusiasm. So, the question arises – what crucial event must happen in the country in order for the people to start believing in the reality of the changes?

We firmly believe that even the passing of the First President would, by no means, signify that the Nazarbayev reign had ended. The ruling elite will try to preserve the status-quo for as long as it can simply in order to survive amid the growing social stratification and the external risks.

In regard to the aforementioned question, we would put these on the list of such crucial events (theoretically speaking, of course):

• if some other candidate wins the June 9 presidential elections instead of Tokayev; 
• if the US President suddenly decides to reopen the Kazakhgate investigation while imposing personal sanctions against the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, his relatives and closest allies;
• if Imangali Tasmagambetov resigns from his post as Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Russia and decides to create and lead of a political party;
• if Mukhtar Ablyazov is granted pardon and is given an opportunity to return to the country and engage in political activities.

Obviously, the said events are so farfetched that they are unlikely to ever happen. At least, while Nursultan Nazarbayev is still alive and even for a couple of years after his passing.

However, there is another type of events that, albeit not so politically radical, would nonetheless be noticed by everyone in the country and serve as a convincing sign that the changes are underway. We are talking about indicting and punishing a relative of either Nursultan Nazarbayev or Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev. Luckily, the reasons for that are plentiful.

For instance, let us take the recent fire at the landfill site close to Almaty. According to the press, the rescuers had to try really hard to extinguish the open flame and then the glow nests.

Let us quote from the May 17 publication on Zakon.kz called “The Almaty waste dump glow nests are being buried under the soil” (text in bold hereinafter by kz.expert).

“Currently, they are conducting the works on burying the glow nests under the soil. About two thousand cubic meters of the soil have been delivered, almost 500 thousand tons of water have been discharged via helicopters, says Zakon.kz citing official representative of the Emergency Situations Committee (ESC) Nursultan Nurakhmetov”.

“Currently, the glow nests area constitutes 0.4 ha. In total, two Kazaviaspas’ and Almaty rescue service’ helicopters, 65 units of equipment and 105 people from the local executive bodies, the Almaty and Almaty region emergency situations departments, company KAZ Waste Conversion LLP, the Almaty rescue service, the Headquarters of Kazselezaschita, and other agencies responsible for settling emergency situations have participated in the rescue operations”. 

In the publication of May 18 titled “The glow nests are extinguished at the Aytey waste landfill”, Zakon.kz informs on the fact that the volume of work was much bigger than stated before.

Here is a quote:

“The glow nests at the Aytey waste landfill in the Karasay district of the Almaty region were extinguished at 18.10, informs Zakon.kz citing the Emergency Situations Committee of the Ministry of Interior.

The area constituted 1 ha. The operations on wetting-down and burying the glow nests have been completed. In total, for the three days of work, the KA-32 and MI-8 helicopters equipped with water discharge devices discharged 840 cubic meters of water. The special-purpose vehicles delivered about 3 thousand cubic meters of the soil. In total, 97 units of equipment and 148 people from the local executive bodies of the Almaty city and Almaty region, the department of emergency situations, the rescue service, the National Guard, the Center of Emergency Medicine, Kazselezashcita, KAZ Waste Conversion LLP were involved in the liquidation of the glow nests”.  

Why has this particular event aroused our interest?

Because, based on the information provided by our insiders, the company managing the landfill site is (unofficially) controlled by Bolat Nazarbayev, the uncrowned “king” of the Almaty region and the Karasay district especially. Bolat Nazarbayev happens to be Nursultan Nazarbayev’s brother.

We will recall that he has been the talk of the town for a long time and not only among the people opposing the authoritarian regime and the super-presidential vertical but the representatives of the ruling elite and the state apparatus. So far, however, he has been able to get away with anything.

So, if the Almaty authorities will calculate all the state expenditures for extinguishing the open flame and then the glow nests, then demand KAZ Waste Conversion LLP to repay the expenses in their entirety and manage to collect the debt, one may start believing that things are really changing in the country.

At the present moment, however, CEO of KAZ Waste Conversion LLP Nurlan Imanbekov promises to build a park on the territory of the partially burned-down landfill site. Which means he does not even consider a possibility of any kind of punishment. 

Photo-fragment taken from video-recording published by Tengrinews.kz The video was made by Maksat Zharasbayev who was flying from Nur-Sultan to Almaty on May 15.