For the last couple of days, the topic of the early Presidential elections in Kazakhstan has become one of the most notable ones in the Kazakh media space. With that, only few now doubt that the early elections will happen. The main issue on the agenda is who the winning candidate will be - Nursultan Nazarbayev or his successor.
According to different prognoses, the President’s eldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva is her father’s most likely successor as the head of the state. However, recently, one political expert has named Speaker of the Senate Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev as a possible successor as well.
We believe Nursultan Nazarbayev, the experienced, cynical, untrusting politician and statesman that he is, will never take too much risk voluntarily. In other words, if the acting President’s health permits him, he will certainly not give up the reins of power as well as share his authority with anyone.
However, if Nazarbayev is seriously ill and has only few months to live, it is a different matter. In this case, the President will try to give the reins of power to the person whom he trusts more than anyone or, rather, whom he distrusts less than anyone.
But, even in such critical a situation, Nursultan Nazarbayev is likely to make the optimal decision: he will announce the early Presidential elections, suggest himself as a candidate, win the elections, then resign voluntarily while remaining the lifelong Chief of the National Security Council of Kazakhstan.
On one hand, this will let him exit life quietly; on the other, will present his chosen successor with the guaranteed opportunity to become the head of the state and with the time needed to gain a footing in the halls of power, to suppress the resistance of the ill-wishers, to establish relations with the ruling elite and to gain the support of the key clans.
The reasons why Nursultan Nazarbayev will try to cling to his power up until his very last breath are obvious. To understand them, it is enough to recall the post-Soviet history, in particular, the cases of the peaceful power transition in the states located to the south of Russia. Only in Azerbaijan, the Presidential chair had passed from father to son. In the other countries, someone from the President’s entourage had been chosen as the head of the state.
Note that, in all the cases, this person would sooner or later conduct the cardinal redivision of the spheres of influence and the property in the country by removing, distancing and even repressing the relatives and allies of their predecessor. And this person would not only take their predecessor’s spot on the political Olympus but would also make sure that the predecessor himself and his achievements were not spoken of too often.
For this reason, we believe, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s participation in the coming early Presidential elections is inevitable. Moreover, it is predetermined. But, after that, the way the events may unfold will depend on many circumstances most crucial of which are – Nazarbayev’s health condition, the processes happening inside the ruling elite and the interests of Kazakhstan’s key external political partners.
In our opinion, a strong pressure on the part of the US is enough for Akorda to be put on a hook. For instance, if Kazakhgate is to be renewed. Of by the means of checking for possible corruptive practices the purchases of the Kazakh oil-extracting companies listed at the US stock market by the Chinese investors.
This is why, we believe, the key domestic political developments in Kazakhstan will happen after the early Presidential elections when Nazarbayev, having won them with no less than 95% of the votes, will start to reshape his entourage, change the balance of power in the super-Presidential vertical and redistribute the spheres of influence in the economy and the state apparatus.
The results of this reshaping will let us understand not only who Nursultan Nazarbayev’s closest ally is today but whom he sees as his successor.
But alas, not more than that. It has already become clear that the demand for the change in Kazakhstan is becoming universal and, therefore, the reaction to it may take different forms – from a next Gorbachev-style perestroika to a toughest dictatorship akin to that of Pinochet. Therefore, there can be several successors as the Soviet history has taught us. Which of them will win? It will be decided already without Nazarbayev’s participation albeit under the slogan of being loyal to him and his legacy.
