On April 8th Russian and Tajikistan had celebrated an anniversary – 25 years of establishing of diplomatic relations. A little earlier, in late February, this event was marked by the official visit of Russian president to Tajikistan.
At the same time, the third official visit of Russian president to Dushanbe didn’t surpass previous expectations. Despite the fact that order of the day of two-sided relations had a slew of important issues, the visit had a ceremonial characters, and as the its results showed, was aimed more at preserving the status quo in inter-state relations.
The signed package of documents on the results of Russian-Tajik talks was limited to four agreements in such areas as preservation of environment, military mail system, using of atomic energy for peaceful means, labor and employment of population, two memorandums on cooperation in the areas of sport and tourism, and others. [1]
On one hand, on the 25th year of establishing of diplomatic relations between two countries, such symbolism is relatively justified, on the other hand – ignoring the existence of certain problems and complains in that regard on the eve of 25th anniversary ads a certain skepticism from the point of view of possible transfer of them to a new level.
At the same time, it would be an omission not to note the existing achievements of Russian-Tajik inter-state cooperation in the time.
Regulatory and legal framework
Assertions that for Tajikistan, Russia is the main political and economic partner are adequate and are not exaggerated. This relations are not only expressed through economic data and Russian military presence in Tajikistan, but also with a solid regulatory and legal framework, which as of today, is accounted for by 56 acting inter-state agreement and treaties 19 of which deal with issues of military presence of Russia on the territory of Tajikistan, as well as military-technical cooperation of two countries.
A regulatory legal framework of cooperation was also created in such spheres as economy (11 treaties); informational exchange (7 treaties); education and science (6 treaties); citizenship and labor migration (1 agreement and 3 treaty); restructuring of debt (3 treaties); diplomatic relations (2 treaties): transport (2 treaties).
Overall, based on data from ministry of foreign affairs of Tajikistan from 1992 to 2014, 230 inter-state, inter-government and inter-institution treaties were signed between Russian and Tajikistan [2].
Security as a constant
The issue of security in Russian-Tajik relations, is traditional the central one. For Russia, the expediency of maintaining security in Tajikistan is guided by the need to protect its southern frontiers, as well as by strengthening of its positions in the zone of its traditional influence. Tajikistan is guided by the same principles of security, but moreover, for Dushanbe regime, Russian military presence stays a sort of a guarantee of protection from possible inside threats.
In Tajikistan’s modern history, Russia’s military presence made a deciding influence on major political processes, first of all, on the outcome of civil wat (1992-1997) and on the existing religious balances.
Such an instrument of influence was the 201nd motorized rifle division, renamed in 2004 into 201 military base of Russian Federation. For a long time the question of its further status of remaining in Tajikistan, was the matter of political discussions and bargains between Moscow and Dushanbe, however in 2012, after the infamous Horog events this issue found a solution during another visit of Vladimir Putin to Tajikistan. Such an outcome confirmed the necessity of Moscow’s presence, in order to sustain Dushanbe regime.
Since 2004, Russia owns the space control system “Nurek” in the area of Nurek. This decision was made by Tajikistani administration in exchange for forgiving of Tajikistan’s $242.5 mil. foreign debt. [3]
Currently, the issue of $200 mil. modernizing of Tajik army on Russia’s dime remains unsolved. This obligation was undertaken by Moscow after the prolonging of status of Russian military base in 2012. According to messages from Russian media, an active phase of realization of these treaties is expected this year.
Apart from bilateral cooperation in military sphere, inter-state cooperation is also realized within the framework of ODKB. The matter is actualized in the backdrop of unstable situation in the neighboring Afghanistan. Joint military trainings on Tajik “Lyaur” range and in eastern Pamir take place regularly. A considerable number of Tajik citizens undergo education in military college of Russia.
During the last meeting of Emomali Rahmon and president Putin, based on statement of presidents, a decision was reached to use the power of 201 military base for the purposes of protecting of Tajik-Afghan border. However, it is too early to talk about the direct guarding of that border.
Economic partnership
A no-less important aspect of bilateral relations is the trade-economic cooperation. Tajikistan is interested in developing close economic relations with Russia. For Russia, development of economic relations with Tajikistan is important also for the reasons of maintaining socio-political stability in the republic.
In the last decade, Russia have had the status of the main trade-economic partner of Tajikistan. According to data of the agency on statistics under the president of Tajikistan, in 2016 the volume of trade between countries was over $1.35 bil [4]. This indicates a decrease in trade volume compared to 2015, by 0.93%.
Overall, if you look at the dynamics of foreign trade between two countries over last four years, you will see that the peak of economic cooperation as in 2014, when trade volume comprise 1 bil. 216 mil. USD. In 2016, this indicated decrease by 15% (diagram 1).
Supply of goods to Russia from Tajikistan in 2016 was $50.6 mln. and was a decrease of 11.1% compared to 2015. Imports from Russia to Tajikistan for that same period was $985.39 mil. and was a decrease of 6% [5] compared to previous year. (see table 1)
Diagram 1.
Dynamics of foreign trade between Tajikistan and Russian Federation for 2012-2016
Table 1.
Trade volume between Tajikistan and Russia for 2012-2016.
Overall for 2016, Russia’s share in Tajik export comprised 5.6%. Import of goods from Russia to Tajikistan comprised 32.5% of all imported goods into the country.
The main share of Russia exports to Tajikistan is comprised of such goods as oil-based materials -43.7%, timber products – 14%, iron – 8.9%, animal fats and oil – 4.1%, wheat products, dairy and confectionary goods – 2.7%, transportation materials – 2.3%.
In the share of Tajik imports to Russia for indicated years, the main place was taken by such goods as cotton – 64.8%, ores, slag and ash – 20%, articles of clothing – 5.1%, fruits and nuts – 2.5%, means of non-land transportation – 1.4%, tobacco and tobacco alternatives – 1.2%, etc.
A decrease of indicators in foreign trade is first of all related to decrease in imports of timber and timber products, vegetables and raw materials as well as decreases in export of cotton, precious metals, livestock [7]. Indicators also decrease due to a fall in prices of utility products.
Trade-economic cooperation with Tajikistan is supported by over 70 subjects of Russia. Main positions in that rating are occupied by Moscow, St. Petersburg, Bashkortostan, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk, Irkustsk, Sverdlovsk, Ivanovo oblasts, Krasnodar and Altay krais. From Tajikistan, main interactors from regions above, are Dushanbe city and Hotlon and Sogd oblasts.
Unjustified investments
Close economic partnership in the past period was coupled with considerable investments. Before 2015, Russia was in the first place on the list of main investment partners of Tajikistan. Its share was 35% of all investments with a total volume of about $1.2 bil. including $1.1. in direct investments.
Howver, in the past period, even here there was a negative dynamic. Based on the data of Tajikistan’s government committee on investments and government property management, volume of accumulated Russian direct foreign investments in 2016 was $985 mln. and for the first time gave way to Chinese analogous savings.
It looks like this negative tendency, besides a financial-economic crisis, with which Russia was faced in the past years, is also related to certain difficulties, with which Russian companies face in the Tajik market; first of all that is tax burden, overwhelming control from government agencies and high debts.
All aforementioned reason cause the unprofitability of larger Russian investment projects in Tajikistan in the sphere of telecommunications, geology and hydro-energy. For instance, in August 2016 Gazprom has turned over two of its remaining licenses for participating of Sarykamish and Western Shohambari, deeming them economically ineffective. The reason cited was high tax burden. It was announced that in its years of activity, Gazprom has spent 6 bil. rubles on developing deposits of which 1.5 bil. went to paying taxes.
The largest Russian project in Tajikistan – Sangtudin hydro-station was faced with same problems, when Tajik energy company “Barki tochik” had run into debt of $80 mil. to it for the use of power. In January of current year it was decided to decrease this debt down to $1.5 mil, due to decreases in the remaining tax debt of Sangudin hydro-station to the government budget. However, there doesn’t seem to be a solution to this problem yet.
The exit from Tajik market was announced in February of this year by mobile company Beeline. This decision was motivated by high taxes, which in the past year exceeded its profits. Beeline announced that for the year 2016, company payed around $73 mil. in taxes, having received a profits of $68 mil [10].
The unprofitability of existing investment projects decreases perspectives for further involvement of Russian capital to Tajik market, which may serve as an indicator of investment attractiveness of the republic for foreign investors. From this point of view, their current state doesn’t inspire much optimism. Coming from current economic conjecture, it seems that Russian investments will continue giving away their positions to Chinese ones.
Humanitarian cooperation
In the backdrop of decreasing of socio-economic and investment indicators, humanitarian partnership of Tajikistan and Russia looks successful. Russian education remains the most popular one in the republic among the masses. Based on official data, there are 16 thousand students from Tajikistan studying in Russia, over 6 thousand students are receiving education inside the country, on the basis of franchises of Russian universities and Russo-Tajik Slavic university. In Dushanbe, there are chapters of MGU and Lomonosov uni., MISiS national research university and Moscow energy institute.
Cooperation in the area of certification of scientific cadres of highest qualification, remains a promising sphere, since Tajikistan is still a part of VAK RF jurisdiction.
A chapter of Rosscooperation – Russian center for science and culture, which does regular cultural events, roundtables, seminars conducts its service in Dushanbe.
Also active in the republic are five Russian schools: three schools under Russian ministry of defense in Dushanbe, Kurgan Tyube and Kulyab, a school under RTSU and chapter of school n. 83 of Noginsk in Moscow oblast in Nurek. Moreover during Putin’s visit to Dushanbe, Russian side express its intentions to build another 20 Russian speaking schools in Tajikistan. In the words of first deputy minister of Russia I. Shuvalov, material infrastructure of these schools will be created through Russian investments; Tajikistan will then take over the control of it.
EAEU as an unfulfilled expectation
Quite unexpected for experts and watchers was the fact that during the official visit of Putin with Rahmon, the issue of Tajikistan joining EAEU wasn’t discussed. In recent times, especially after Kyrgyzstan joining the union, the most discussed question of Russian-Tajik order of the day was possible inclusion of Tajikistan into EAEU.
Based on this significant role that Russia plays in the economy of Tajikistan, the scenario of expansion of the union through Tajikistan is seen as a logical and inevitable process. Tajik side has said many times that it explore possible risks and prospects of joining EAEu, while Tajik experts circles even formulated certain demands to Moscow in case of joining EAEU. This demands were expressed in compensating the loss of customs fees after joining the union, development of the real sector of economy and road infrastructure, realization of hydro-energy projects etc.
However, it seems that considering current economic turbulence and polemics inside the union, Moscow had decide to wait with further widening of integrational union. There was even information in the media from anonymous sources that during the last meeting Tajik powers, unsuccessfully tried to lobby the issue of joining into EAEU, but the Russian side gave a negative answer [12].
Problems of migration
It is quite possible to assume that such a scenario took place, since solving of this issue will largely affect the export of labor force, which Tajikistan has in abundance. Remittances of labor migrants still facilitate sustaining of quality of life of population and comprise on average up to 40% of country’s GDP. In 2016 alone 1.9 bil. dollars were transferred from Russia to Tajikistan.
Reforms in Russian migration policy changed conditions of labor migrants from countries that aren’t members of EAEU. As a result of toughening of migration code, by different estimates around 300 thousand Tajik citizens lost rights to enter Russia due to administrative crimes.
Moreover, according to patent system, Tajik migrants must pay monthly payments of 34-68 dollars depending on the employment in various subjects of federation.
Overall, Tajikistan’s falling out from the common EAEU market creates serious obstacles first of all for migrants, who essentially sustain economic and political stability of the country. Thus, Tajikistan’s administration was highly interested in solving these problems during the meeting of two heads of state.
President Putin’s announcement that “solution in general has been found” eventually expressed itself in migration amnesty of Tajik citizens on the territory of RF who are illegal or have committed small misdemeanors. However, the procedure of announced amnesty, which as it turned out was Ministry of interior of Russia’s internal decision only touched a small part of Tajik labor migrants and Dushanbe won’t be satisfied with it.
Final conclusions
Mentioned problems and achievements in relations between Tajikistan and Russia aren’t conclusive. Economic potential of inter-state cooperation still isn’t realized on a full scale due to financial standing of Russia in the past few years having a tendency to get worse. Moscow builds its external policy based on current possibilities, including its relations with Dushanbe which, judging from Putin’s visit has a strong tactical edge.
The existence of strong financial needs makes Dushanbe expect more from Kremlin than it is able to offer at a present moment, but not having opportunities to affect the process and being in a dependable state, it keeps the status of a loyal ally.
Evidently, further development of inter-state relations, including the issue of Tajikistan joining EAEU will be built as Russia’s economy recovers.
About the Author
Khursand Khuramov is a political expert, candidate of the department of political analysis and management of Russian university of friendship of nations; among his professional interests are political processes in Tajikistan and central Asia.
[1]Documents signed following the Russian-Tajik negotiations 27.02.2017 http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5164/print
[2]Ignatov A. Russian-Tajik relations at a modern stage: policy-judicial review //Eurasian council of scientists (ESU)№8 (17), 2015. p.24.
[3]Shorokhov V.A. Russian and Tajikistan in early XXI century: Aspects of mutual perception // Vestnik SPbGU .Ser.2.2011. Edtn.4.p.150.
[4]Ministry of economic development of RF Operative data on foreign trade of RF and Tajikistan // http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/tj/tj_ru_relations/tj_ru_trade/
[5]Same as above.
[6]Report on socio-economic state of Tajikistan for 2016 // Agency on statistics under president of Tajik Republic, 2017.
[7]Volume of foreign trade in Tajikistan in two years has fallen by a third 18.10.2016.Радио Radio Ozodi // http://rus.ozodi.org/a/28060326.html
[8]Kuzmina E Presentation on Russian-Tajik trade-investment cooperation 2014
[9]Popov D. Five reasons why Rahmon and Putin’s talks will be succesful: // Sputnik 2017. http://ru.sputnik-tj.com/columnists/20170226/1021761374/pyat-prichin-putin-rahmon-tajikistan-russia.html
[10]«Beeline» is planning to leave Tajikistan due to high taxes IA Ozodagon 2017 // http://catoday.org/centrasia/31274-bilayn-sobiraetsya-pokinut-tadzhikistan-iz-za-vysokih-nalogov
[11] Investments into nowhere? Russia will build 20 schools in Tajikistan with Russian as a language of teaching 2017 // http://www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1488267300
[12]Tajikistan is not being accepted into EAEU// 2017
https://centre1.com/tajikistan/tadzhikistan-ne-prinimayut-v-evrazijskij-ekonomicheskij-soyuz
