There is word in Astana that Adilbek Dzhaksybekov, Head of Nazarbayev Administration, has handed in resignation due to health issues. They also say that Nazarbayev is much displeased with the work performance of the government and may appoint a new prime minister.

We do not see a point in commenting on these talks. We will, however, ask ourselves these questions. Could the president work up the nerve to make such drastic changes and, if yes, why would he do so?

To answer the first question, of course, he can, this is in his power. The reasons are quite obvious as well – the country and the economy are now in distress and the internal political stability is shaking. Usually, in such critical a situation, Nazarbayev acts with much determination.

For example, at the start of the 1990s, when it had become evident that the country could not come out of the recession (let alone form market economy) by the traditional methods, Nazarbayev appointed Akezhan Kazhgeldin as the prime minister. Kazhegeldin was then young, ambitious and had not yet traveled the path of the state service.

Apart from Kazhegeldin, Nazarbayev appointed Daulet Sembayev as Chairman of the National Bank. Sembayev was an experienced economist who had previously worked as a first vice-president at the government. Together with Erik Asanbayev, a vice president of Kazakhstan, who was in charge of the human resources and put together a whole team of the young and active state officials, these two had achieved quite a success.

Today the situation in the Kazakh economy and the social sphere is better than it used to be during the first post-Soviet years. However, the evident and dramatic decline in the quality of life increases a possibility of potential protests. Besides, the state apparatus and the quasi-governmental agencies are failing. In the end, the effectiveness of all their attempts is extremely low and, sometimes, is even of a negative value. Therefore, it is only logical that Nazarbayev may try to repeat the twenty-year-old successful experiment.

Out of the three key figures of today – the prime minister, the chairman of the National bank, and the person who is actually in charge of the state power vertical including the staff deployment – only one person, Daniyar Akishev, seems to be appropriate for the job.

As for Adilbek Dzhaksybekov and Bakhitzhan Sagintayev, one would never think of them as reformers capable of leading others, taking risks and achieving success in tough conditions. Therefore, the president will have to, one way or another, replace them with his other allies who fit better for the tasks of today. So, let us consider who is now riding the pine and what staff choices are available for Nazarbayev.

We will start with the crucial figure, the head of the presidential administration. We believe that Speaker of Parliament Nurlan Nigmatullin can quite possibly return to this post.

However, we think Nigmatullin’s chances to do so are minimal. First, acting harshly and even cruelly while in Akorda, he had damaged relations with many ruling elite representatives. So, if he, once again, becomes the head of Nazarbayev Administration, his numerous enemies will to put a spoke in his wheel which probably won’t be helpful for improving the situation.

The same is true for Karim Masimov, the head of the Kazakh National Security Agency.

Among the other possible candidates, we can name Akhmetzhan Esimov who is going to be out of work after Astana-Expo-2017 will have ended and Bulat Utemuratov who is now running businesses full time.

However, seeing how that same Imangali Tasmagambetov has chosen to leave the political spotlight, we believe that this generation of Nazarbayev’s allies realizes the seriousness of the moment and, thus, is not prepared to take any risks.

Therefore, most probably, the new head of Nazarbayev Administration and the prime minister will be chosen among the next generation of state officials. First, the governors come to mind – Governor of Astana Aset Isekeshev, Governor of Almaty Bauyrzhan Baybek, Governor of the Kzylordinskaya province Krymbek Kusherbayev. Their youth, the readiness to be in the public eye, and the fact that they do not have too many political opponents are among their advantages.

However, as history tells us, Nazarbayev wants to organize the ruling troika in such a manner that one of the three must be older to function as a “decelerator” for the younger part of the group.

So, it is quite possible that, if Aset Isekeshev will become the head of Nazarbayev Administration, the president will appoint a more aged official as the prime minister, someone like Berdibek Saparbayev, Governor of the Aktyubinsk province.

There is no point to speculate further since appointing high officials in Kazakhstan is a completely non-public procedure. The only thing we can be sure of is that Dariga Nazarbayeva who had failed miserably as a vice-president of the country will not return to the public service arena.

As for the so called “bolashkovtsy”, after Kaundyk Bishimbayev’s arrest, their status in the state vertical has been shaken and today, as a maximum, what they can hope for are the positions of deputy ministers and provincial governors.

So, we can see that the turbulence in the Kazakh government and the presidential administration is still very much under way. It looks like Nazarvayev, using the “item-by-item examination” method, will try to form a super-government that, under his command, will be able to solve the current problems and lead the country to prosperity.