Nursultan Nazarbayev has been hyperactive in the beginning of this year. This is a clear sign that the government understands the scale, the depth, and the danger of the current political, economic, and social crises in the country. They also realize that these crises together may lead to a collapse of the authoritarian political regime. Therefore, they are arduously searching for ways to handle these growing problems simultaneously trying to mobilize the state apparatus as well as the business and the society.

 Nazarbayev has made three addresses for the past weeks. On January 25, he made a speech called “On the Question of the Redistribution of Power among the Branches of the Government”, on January 31, he spoke to the nation in his “Presidential Address to the People of Kazakhstan”, and on February 3, he gave the “valuable managerial instructions” to the government. The second one, the address to the nation, is the most resonant among them. As for the other two, clearly, they are an attempt to mobilize the government as well as the population of the country in general.

We believe that, as an attempt to influence the Kazakh society, such addresses are quite ineffective these days. Of course, to verify this hypothesis, one needs to have results of sociological surveys. However, in modern Kazakhstan, such surveys, especially of the people working in the public sector, are conducted only as part of the governmental order. Moreover, most likely, the results of such surveys would not reflect people’s real opinions. Therefore, we will analyze the “Presidential Address to the People of Kazakhstan” from the point of feasibility of the suggested solutions only.

As the president says in his address, “it is necessary to create a new model of economic growth that will ensure our country’s global competitive performance”. Here the target setting itself seems puzzling. A country with a population of 18 million and an average density of 6 persons per square kilometer can hardly become a contender for the global competitiveness. This alone raises doubts about the professionalism of those who wrote the text of the address.

Judging by the content of this address, it is not so much a third Kazakhstan “modernization program” as an advertisement product aimed to attract potential foreign investors and once again reassure the Kazakh citizens that everything is all right. Therefore, it is not surprising that Nazarbayev calls the “intensified technological modernization of economy” the first national priority.

To make it happen, the president assigns the government to do the following:

• formulate and sign into power the “Digital Kazakhstan” program
• adapt the legislature
• ensure the development of communications and guarantee the universal access to the fiber-optic infrastructure
• support innovations and their fast implementation into manufacture; create an international IT-startups tech park.

The president also suggests to “cultivate the new industries that are created with the use of digital technologies” and “develop our own scientific and innovative potential in colleges, Nazarbayev University, and Alatau IT-city.

We have no doubt that the government will complete all the four tasks successfully. Although providing the universal access to the fiber-optic infrastructure and implementing innovations in a prompt manner may pose a challenge because the abilities of the state and the quasi-state institutions to finance such projects are constantly decreasing. Besides, the very effectiveness of these projects is quite questionable. As for cultivating new industries and developing the scientific potential, these tasks are formulated so widely that, given the Kazakh way of doing things, their realization is guaranteed.

There is just one problem. The fast and successful “modernization of the economy” by itself does not guarantee the achievement of the three key objectives:

1. job security
2. income growth and the quality of life improvement
3. labor effectiveness increase

Without achieving these objectives, the Kazakh government will probably not be able to maintain political stability in the country in the coming years.

As for the renovation of the economy, it can only be done in a limited number of sectors. Besides, such innovations usually lead to reduction in force. Therefore, most Kazakh citizens will not experience the positive results of the future reforms (provided there are any).

Such a mistake in task formulation is not at all random. It is based on Nazarbayev’s fundamental premise. As a person of the old Soviet formation, President Nazarbayev prioritizes the state’s and the country’s needs over the people and society. Therefore, his aim is to make Kazakhstan one of the fifty/thirty most developed world powers and not to provide the Kazakh citizens with the quality of life in accordance with the standards of these powers.

We believe Kazakhstan does indeed need the “intensified technological modernization of the economy”. However, this task is not the main one, it is a satellite one. Moreover, it is not so much a task as a solution method, and not even the principal one. Therefore, Nazarbayev Administration and the president himself make a fundamental mistake prioritizing it. And this mistake is dangerous. The support equipment, technologies, practices will be imported into the country without regard to their real necessity and return on investment. This has already happened many times in the recent years.

Then, Nursultan Nazarbayev instructs to kick-start the “development of the traditional primary industries” such as production sector, agricultural sector, transport and logistics, construction sector and others. Thus, the president once again makes his usual mistake and does not mark out the key sector of the economy. Based on our estimates, the agricultural sector plays this role today. This, however, is a topic for a different publication series.

Going back to Nazarbayev’s instructions, they can be divided into two groups.

• Of a general nature, such as “we must increase labor effectiveness significantly”, “we should continue the industrialization process with the emphasis on the development of the commercially-viable export-oriented manufactures in the priority sectors”, “the government must increase the non-oil exports twice by 2025”, “we should fit into the global chains of production and salesmanship”.

• Of a concrete nature (there is quite a few assignments of this kind), for example, “a compressive set of measures for the technological rearmament of the primary industries by 2025” or “I assign creating the Export Policy Council affiliated to the government”.

There is no point in analyzing either of the two. The assignments in the first group are too broad; as for the second, we can say with certainty that Nazarbayev’s instructions will be carried out to the letter. Therefore, we will mark out only those assignments that we believe may become resonant. In other words, eventually, they will trigger a negative response in society.

First, it is the president’s request to attract more Chinese investors to Kazakhstan.

Here is a citation, “Together with China, we must implement the joint investment program to create manufactures in Kazakhstan. The agreements with the Chinese side are achieved. The objects are defined. We need to start working in concrete terms. These will be modern manufactures with about 20 000 new work places for the Kazakh citizens. Today, six projects are being delivered, two have already been launched”.

Second, it is Nazarbayev’s plan to consolidate the agricultural producers.

Here is a citation, “The agricultural sector must become a new economy driver… Therefore, I request the following from the government and the local authorities… in five years, we must provide the necessary background for the merger of more than 500 thousand households and small farms into collective enterprises”.

One can predict that the Kazakh population will strongly oppose the implementation of these projects. As for the Chinese investments, the opposition to those will most likely boil down to a social network “storm”. However, the attempt to collectivize the agricultural industry may turn out to be the breaking point especially considering the authorities’ habit to act with the aid of violence, administrative pressure and coercion while reaping benefits to the advantage of selected officials.

We doubt that the state will convince several million citizens (the 500 thousand household and small farms, taking into account the average number of persons in a family, means 2 or 3 million people) to voluntarily hand over their lands and assets to some persons or person unknown in exchange for portions or shares. Unfortunately, the head of the state does not say how exactly the government will get the citizens interested in this project. Most likely, this issue has not yet been addressed from the practical point of view and, at the moment, is nothing but wishful thinking.

The president’s superficial approach to the state task formulation is dangerous for yet another reason. In his address, the Kazakh citizens are, once again, seen not as the active participants of the future reforms but as an amorphous, faceless, and passive mass. One of the crucial flaws of Nazarbayev’s “Presidential Address” is that it does not offer an inclusive mechanism to transform the citizens into the subjects of the reform process.