On March 9, 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made another public plea to Russian President Vladimir Putin asking for an immediate stop to the war in Ukraine. The latter has made no response since he has not yet achieved the goals he is pursuing.

Let us quote Scholz’s words. “I urge the Russian President, “Stop the bloodshed, move out the Russian troops!” This is a terrible catastrophe for the Ukrainian people but the Russian people are suffering from  this war too”. 

This rather an emotional statement was made during the joint press-conference of the German Chancellor and Canadian Prime Minister Justine Trudeau in Berlin.

It’s not that this kind of addresses (as well as the sanctions imposed by the USA, UK, EU and their allies on an everyday basis) are useless but, in our opinion, they are not to be heard and noticed. At least not until the moment Putin and the Russian ruling elite will have achieved the desired result.

And this desired result does not involve the “Entnazifizierung” and “appeasement” of Ukraine (these are secondary). Nor does it involve Ukraine becoming a member of the NATO in which case the North Atlantic block will share the borders with Russia. These are the stories for the domestic audience that, for the most part, can be easily bought into such slogans.

We believe the main goal of Putin and the country he is presiding over is a geopolitical one. Briefly and roughly, it can be defined sobering up the collective West and reminding it that weaponry has always been, is and will remain the main argument in resolving geopolitical disputes between countries. And, in this instance, the weapon in question could be nuclear.

By no means do we condone the actions of the Russian President, however, we do wish to underscore that he is a force to be reckoned with. Putin is rather cynical as a person and he knows how to plan his actions well.

Back in the day, the collective West led by the USA chose not to hear Vladimir Putin’s numerous declarations that Russia had rebuilt itself as one of the main geopolitical players and, therefore, its interests must be taken into consideration.

In response, Russia began using its main comparative advantage - the military forces complete with nuclear weapons - as its political tool.

Due to some reasons (we do not know what they are for this is a question for Western experts), the collective West chose to ignore during of the conflicts between Russia and Georgia (the five-day war of 2008) and Ukraine (the active period of 2014-2015). Moreover, it chose to respond by using its geopolitical, technological and economic advantages and imposed sanctions to which Russia has little to counterpose at this point.

It looks like this is what has motivated Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to take the risk and respond to the Third World War that, in their opinion, the collective West headed by the USA has been conducting against them via their main and last resort – the weapons.

However, in order to use these weapons (non-nuclear ones, at this point) they needed a country that, on one hand, was important for the collective West, on the other hand, would provide the Kremlin with enough reason to invade. From this perspective, Ukraine was the ideal candidate especially since, in the midst of its domestic political wrangles and the wish to win over the voters’ support, the Ukrainian politicians have put solving the Donbas problems on hold.

In our opinion, continuing the military action in the eastern regions that have separated themselves from Ukraine was primarily damaging Ukraine itself. If only because it deflected attention of the civil society away from the main task of the time – the accelerated adaptation of the country to the common European market and the increasing of the level and quality of life. 

If the Ukrainian citizens began living better lives than those remaining in the separated regions, the people would be easily persuaded to return to Ukraine. Just think of the coming down of the Berlin Wall and the unification of Germany. 

Alas, even in Vladimir Putin’s latest statements and threats, the Ukrainian politicians failed to hear the roaring of the future gunfires and bombings. And, because of it, things turned out in the way that many global powers and politicians including Chancellor Olaf Schtolz are trying to arrest now.

However, it looks like Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are to continue the war in Ukraine for as long as they need in order to get across to the collective West (first of all, the USA) the idea that, to defend its interests, Russia is prepared to convert the Third World War that, so far, has been conducted via the non-military means into a nuclear war. 

Moreover, we do allow for the possibility that tactical nuclear weapons may be used against the Ukrainian troops in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. For, the Russian authorities clearly do not want to engage in direct conflicts with the enemy, at the same time, they do need evident victories.

We are not to predict how long the “special military operation” in Ukraine is going to go on but it looks like Vladimir Putin needs the growth of the world commodity prices, the number of Ukrainian refugees, the mounting of the problems with cargo deliveries around the globe, the increase of the havoc in Ukraine and so forth to get to such a morbid point that they would exert an effect on even the most vocal opponents.

At the same time, the price the county and its citizens will pay does not matter for Putin since, whatever the case, it is going to be three hundredfolds less compared to what it might be given a direct mIlitary confrontation between Russia and the NATO.