The break of the silence barrier is one of the most significant and already evident results of the January “explosion” of the protest sentiments in Kazakhstan. Many people in the country have begun talking about the events feeling free to criticise the Nazarbayevschina, and not only in the “kitchens” but in the public domain.

We at KZ.expert believe it to be very significant since it shows that the wall in the minds of the Kazakhs built via the longstanding efforts by the authoritarian political regime and the “super-presidential” vertical is collapsing. 

So, it looks like Akorda will now have to fight not only and not so much its political opponents as the negative public sentiment. 

As you recall, in the course of Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika, the Soviet authoritarian political system had lost such battle completely which served as one of the major factors leading to the collapse of the socialist system and the USSR.

At the same time, entering the information space on the part of the previously silent public will invariably result in the Kazakh citizens being hit by the perfect storm of information. And the latter, for the most part, is not going to be too reliable.

The reasons for this lie in plain view – anyone who has already begun talking or will begin talking about the future will try and publicly promote their point of view. And those with “stained” reputations will likely to try and vindicate themselves or offer explanations to wash themselves clean.

Case in point. One of the people who have recently raised their voice was former NSC Chief Nartay Dutbayev was had given a big interview to reporter Gulnara Bazhkenova. We find the appearance of this high-rank silovik before people interesting for several reasons.

Firstly, we are surprised by the very fact of breaking the silence by the person who 

- was put in charge of the main Kazakh secret service after the foundation of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan,

- resigned his post due to the murder of the opposition member Altynbek Sarsenbayev,

- worked as the NAK Kazatomprom Vice President alongside Mukhtar Dzhakishev,

- was arrested in 2016 and, in 2017, sentenced to seven years of imprisonment,

- in 2018, received his second sentence – this time, 12 years of imprisonment,

- and, in 2020, was unexpectedly released.

We at KZ.expert believe, at the minimum, this means that Nartay Dutbayev is no longer afraid of his former colleagues and, at the maximum, it indicates that Akorda has summoned him at the information front to help the authorities form the desirable public opinion.

Secondly, we give big points to Nartay Dutbayev’s professionalism (it is true what they say – once a KGB agent, always a KGB agent) in promoting his version of the current and past events.

We also give him points for being able to support the official version of the January events in Kazakhstan while criticising the actions of the National Security Committee and its officers.

Apart from that, he was rather objective in his assessment of former NSC Chief Karim Masimov and of the reasons why the latter fell out of favour and found himself behind bars.

Thirdly, we got interested in the myths formed by Nartay Dutbayev in the course of the interview – convincingly albeit unobtrusively.

In our opinion, some of them are partly true, others are fiction (putting it mildly) whose aim is to divert the attention of the public or even pull the wool over its eye.

Since the former NSC chief had said quite a lot (he spoke for more than an hour and a half), we will limit our commentary to several brief observations.

Let us begin with how Nartay Dutbayev became acquainted with Mukhtar Ablyazov which, according to him, happened in the penal colony where he was serving his sentence.

It is true, when the leader of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan was put to prison, he was immediately approached by the NSC agents. It was done upon the direct order of Nursultan Nazarbayev who wanted to break Ablyazov and make his example a lesson to others.

At that time, Ablyazov was in contact with the then chief of the Third and then Tenth NSC Department Vladimir Zhumakanov who later became the head of this service and resigned to clear the space for Karim Masimov.

At the same time, Zhumakanov’s efforts to force Mukhtar Ablyazov to give in and admit his guilt before the “leader of the nation” Nursultan Nazarbayev were accompanied by excessive beatings, torture and pressure on the part of both the law-enforcers and the criminals operating under their control. As a result, as Nartay Dutbayev has said, the former leader of the DCK made a pubic confession recorded on video. After that, Nursultan Nazarbayev pardoned the apostate.

However, this is but the outer side of the past events. And now we will give you a brief account of what actually happened.

The thing is that, even before the founding of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, the initiators of the movements (only a part of whom was among the official founders of the DCK) understood full well what was going to happen to them if they failed. In other words, if they were unable to make the country rise up against Nursultan Nazarbayev’s autocracy and win the battle.

So, they had made a decision that, after two years of imprisonment, the two leaders of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, i.e. Mukhtar Ablyazov and Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, would have the right to start searching for ways to be freed.

Given the circumstances, it clearly follows that Ablyazov’s video-confession was but a political manoeuvre. It was a game that ended in victory – which was release from prison.  

It looks like the then NSC chief was unaware that Mukhar Ablyazov’s allies were keeping in touch with him almost the entire time with exception for one month when they would beat him up and he had to crawl the floor to get to the toilet. Mukhtar Ablyazov had used this channel to receive the final approval of his allies that he accepts Akorda’s conditions.  

As to what Nartay Dutbayev has said regarding Mukhtar Ablyazov’s release, it is the truth. The external political pressure on Akorda was so strong while the activity of his friends, first of all Mukhtar Dzhakishev and Nurlan Smagulov (but not only them), was so intense that Nursultan Nazarbayev took the risk and gave in.

Unfortunately, Galymzhan Zhakiyanov did not enjoy the same success. Possibly, due to the fact that Nazarbayev later realised he had made a mistake for Ablyazov had not stopped supporting the opposition and the opposition media albeit he was doing it with such caution that no one was able to catch him red-handed.

By the way, it is the following factor that had played an important part in the NSC being unable to prove Ablyazov’s involvement in supporting the opposition up until 2009. And the two key players on the side of the authorities, Vladimir Zhumakanov and Nartay Dutbayev, had never realised it and/or accepted their defeat.

What happened later – the sale of the participation interests in the Kazakh uranium mining enterprises of Canadian firm Uranium One – had bound Mukhtar Dzhakishev, Nartay Dutbayev and Mukhtar Ablyazov forever.

This $300 mln deal was later blamed on both Mukhtar Ablyazov who was the formal beneficiary and Mukhtar Dzhakishev who conducted it.

At the same time, we would like to underscore that the deal was completely legal and turned out to be so profitable only because, at that time, the global uranium prices had jumped up thus increasing the value of the assets. Which, of course, did not save Ablyazov and Dzhakishev from being found guilty.  

Meanwhile, according to our insiders, this business-operation had three beneficiaries, i.e. Mukhtar Dzhakishev, Nartay Dutbayev and Mukhtar Ablyazov. Moreover, the deal was approved by Nursultan Nazarbayev himself for the reasons we are going to reveal in a separate article.

Of course, Dzhakishev and Dutbayev were unable to take advantage of their money since, for security reasons, it was kept on the offshore accounts and, in 2009-2010, spent by Mukhtar Ablyazov on supporting BTA Bank JSC and its Russian subsidiary.

Our latest commentary on Nartay Dutbayev’s interview has to do with the kidnapping of Alma Shalabayeva and her daughter from Rome. In this instance, Nartay Dutbayev’s words are not to be trusted.

The thing is that, after the seizure of BTA Bank by the government in 2009, Nartay Dutbayev had found himself in an extremely difficult position since he personally was responsible, before Nursultan Nazarbayev, that Mukhtar Ablyazov adheres to the set rules.

The latter, however, instead of complying with the repeated requests of Nazarbayev to hand him a half of BTA Bank’s shares (by the way, these requests were communicated through Karim Masimov who was the Prime Minister at the time), had refused to do so categorically. Moreover, before the bank’s seizure, he had managed to leave the country and flee to the UK.

After the arrest of Mukhar Dzhakishev that happened that same year, Nartay Dutbayev’s situation had become critical. In order to survive, he got actively involved, first, in the negotiations with Mukhtar Ablyazov and, then, in the efforts to find him, arrest him and extradite him to his homeland.

We do not possess the corresponding documents, however, the data provided by our sources allows us to conclude that the illegal seizure and the subsequent removal from Rome of Mukhtar Ablyazov’s wife and young daughter were the result of his persecutors’ failure to find him. And even a tip-off from the private detectives employed by Akorda did not help the Italian siloviks .

It looks like someone responsible for capturing the main political opponent of Nursultan Nazarbayev and his emergency extradition to the homeland had chosen to cover his failure with the kidnapping of Alma Shalabayeva and the girl. General Lieutenant of National Security Nartay Dutbayev could very well be this person especially considering that he had cooperated with the people who were close to him and who then went to prison alongside him.

This turned out to be a catastrophic political mistake on his part since kidnapping a woman and a child from Europe, from the Italian capital, had produced such a huge effect that, as a result, worked in favour of Mukhtar Ablyazov and, to a great degree, predetermined his release from Paris prison at the end of 2016.

Whatever the case, the fact that former NSC Chief Nartay Dutbayev has started speaking and has done so inside Kazakhstan is, in our opinion, a positive trend.

Not claiming that everything we have written now and before (on the pages of the Respublika newspaper closed in 2012 and the Respublika information-analytical portal closed in 2016) is a complete and exclusive truth, we nonetheless are prepared to defend our opinion. Therefore, if Mr. Dutbayev wishes to refute it, we are ready to give him an opportunity to speak.

FOR REFERENCE: Nartay Dutbayev was arrested in December 2916 on suspicion of “revealing government secrets”. In August 2017, the Aqmola Post Military Court sentenced him to 7.5 years of imprisonment on charge of “revealing government secrets and “abuse of authority”. In January 2018, he was accused of embezzlement and money laundering. His final sentence of 12 years of imprisonment was determined via “partial adding of the punishment”. However, already in January 2019, after reviewing the protest of the Public Prosecution Office, the Cassation Board of the Supreme Court reduced the sentence to 11 years.