The replacement of Nurlan Nigmatulin as the head of the Mazhilis of the Kazakh Parliament with Erlan Koshanov that took place on February 1, 2022, gives a comprehensive answer to the questions that Kazakh and foreign experts have been asking since recently.
Basically, the list of these questions includes the following.
First – is it true that Nursultan Nazarbayev has completely given up on supreme power in the country and it is now in the hands of second President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev?
Second – will the numerous personnel reshuffles of the recent days result in the qualitative changes of the state and its policy?
Third – it is possible that the Nur Otan party, after the cardinal changes made at the emergency congress of its leadership, can now undergo a self-reforming?
Fourth – do the amendments to the constitutional laws on the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicate that the country’s political system is growing less authoritarian and that the “super-presidential” vertical may become only “presidential”?
We believe the answers to these question were given on February 1, 2022.
And all of them are univocal – no.
The thing is that, for a number of years, Nurlan Nigmatulin was one of the closest (albeit not on a personal level) allies of Nursultan Nazarbayev and held a rather independent position in the ruling elite. Moreover, we at KZ.expert believe that he is one of the few high-rank statesmen who can dare to refuse executing Tokayev’s orders especially when talking about the post of the head of the Mazhilis.
And it wouldn’t even require any drastic moves – it was enough to refuse to sign the statement of deputy’s seat waiver.
Of course, it would not have saved Nigmatulin but the process of his dismissal would have taken quite some time – the Nur Otan Political Council would have to expel his from the party which, given the current political situation, would have caused quite a scandal.
At the same time, we do allow for the possibility that, in such critical a situation, the speaker of the Mazhilis could have been supported by the Karaganda local party branch. Karaganda is the region where twin-brothers Nurlan and Erlan Nigmatulin have more than a solid standing.
But the mutiny had not happened which means that Nurlan Nigmatulin consented to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s decision. Even though it did inflict on him a serious blow not only in terms of his reputation but also in terms of his standing in the ruing elite. Quite possibly, in terms of the family business owned by him and his brother, too.
Of course, the former head of the Mazhilis did try to save face via a special address to his former colleagues in which he expressed “sincere gratitude, first and foremost, to the Elbasy, the founder of the Nur Otan party, Nurstultan Abishevich Nazarbayev”.
We at KZ.expert see Nurlan Nigmatulin’s obedience as an indication that all Tokayev’s decisions had been sanctioned by the Elbasy.
Another proof that the second President of Kazakhstan is still operating under the aegis of the First President lies in the fact that not once has Nursultan Nazarbayev used his numerous exclusive rights including the right to directly address the Kazakh citizens, the deputies of the Parliament and the members of the Nur Otan party.
At the same time, his recent speech made at the emergency congress of the so-called ruling party shows that not only is he alive but that he has no problem speaking for at least several minutes. So, if Nazarbayev wanted to bring his successor down or dispute his decisions (including the personnel reshuffles), he would not hesitate to do it publicly.
As for the high-profile personnel moves on the part of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with all their accelerated speed and the unexpected new appointments, they have been made within the framework of the current authoritarian political system and the “super-presidential” vertical of Kazakhstan.
And the fact that Akorda was able to replace the head of the Mazhilis, in other words, the head of the legislative branch of power (the person elected by voters and not appointed by the head of the state) within the scope of one day serves as the iron-clad proof of it.
Of course, the law has not been violated but only because Akorda-independent political forces are not allowed in the Mazhilis while the House itself is formed according to the party quota. Nonetheless, the fact remains – in Kazakhstan, the legislative branch of power is directly dependent on the executive branch of power. Even though, in this case, the Nur Otan party has served as the cushion, the former depends on the latter one hundred percent.
And this explains our answer to the third question - it is possible that the Nur Otan party, after the cardinal changes made at the emergency congress of its leadership, can now undergo a self-reforming? No, it is not.
By the way, it looks like the party’s faction in the Mazhilis did not even assemble to discuss such an important topic as the replacement of the head of the House (their fellow party member) while the Nur Otan Political Council did not even think that this kind of personnel move must be examined and approved by it.
Finally. We say “no” to the fourth question (do the amendments to the constitutional laws on the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicate that the country’s political system is growing less authoritarian and the “super-presidential” vertical may become only “presidential”?) based on the same fact that, for Tokayev and his team, the settlement of such an important political question as the replacement of the head of the Mazhilis took but one day.
At the same time, nobody (we repeat, nobody) – the dismissed Nurlan Nigmatulin (one of the weightiest people in the country), his large clan, the Nur Otan Political Council, the Nur Otan deputies, the deputes of the parties in opposition to the authorities – had done anything to prevent it.
And this, by the way, shows that, even if Nursultan Nazarbayev had stopped being the leader of the authoritarian political system and the “super-presidential” vertical (which we do not believe to be true), his place was immediately taken by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Therefore, at most, what has changed is the person who is “reigning” it.
P.S. To those who think Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is different from his predecessor and is capable of reforming the country and lead to towards a brighter future, we recommend reading a play by Evgeny Shvarts called “The Dragon” or watching its cinema adaptation by director Mark Zakharov called “To Kill a Dragon”.
