The internal political process in Kazakhstan is unfolding with such speed and intensity that one cannot be but be struck with wonder. At the same time, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and his team seem to be focusing only on two tasks they consider of the utmost importance.
Firstly, there is the personnel reshuffle among the top government officials.
Secondly, there is the soothing of the social sentiments inside the country and abroad.
From Akorda’s perspective, it is not only sensible but unavoidable – in order to pursue his policy line regardless of how different it is from the policy of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the current President must have on his team not simply the people clothed with some kind of authority but his allies. Or, at the very least, the reliable executors of his will and orders.
For this reason, we see no point in commenting on the individual personnel decisions on the part of Tokayev including the latest ones such as the moving of Erbolat Dosayev from the National Bank to the position of the Almaty akim and the “electing” of Erzhan Koshanov the head of the Mazhilis.
The mere fact that it has happened shows that they enjoy the confidence of the second President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (regardless if this confidence is complete or relative). This is why they have been sent to where they are now. The rest (including the details of their biographies, their successes and failures, their public reputation and so on and so forth) has no bearing on the matter.
However, we do consider it necessary to point our that such vigour and decisiveness on the part of Nazarbayev’s successor cannot but bewilder us. We never expected anything of the sort from a statesman who had spent thirty years as a high-rank official running errands for the Elbasy. The statesman who, among other things, had not been very successful in the main occupation of the newly-born ruling elite – the accumulating of a large fortune amounting to millions and billions of US dollars.
On the other hand, however, we understand what is causing the said vigour and decisiveness.
It looks like the January “explosion” of the protest sentiments in the country has shaken the authoritarian political system and the “super-presidential” vertical to the core. And, perhaps for the first time since they were created, has put them on the edge of fear. Therefore, it is not surprising that this “explosion” has also mobilised Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and cardinally transformed him as a man and a politician.
The fact that it has happened can be attested to, among other things, by his interview to the Khabar TV-channel broadcasted on January 29, 2022. Contrary to many of its critics, we give this interview a high rating albeit not in respect to its contents but in respect to its form.
Let us start by saying that the people currently involved in promoting the image of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chose the format of the interview quite correctly. It was a calm, one may even say, friendly talk between the head of the state and a reporter, a female reporter at that.
In contrast with the interviews of Nursultan Nazarbayev given over the past decades when the First President would descend from his pedestal to answer the reporters’ questions asked with veneration and understanding that the latter were in the presence of a demigod , Tokayev conversed with the reporter as a head of the state would with a citizen of this state. From the standpoint of the emotional impact especially on those wishing to believe the Elbasy’s successor, it’s worth a lot.
During the interview, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev looked and spoke in a very different way than before. He carried himself in a confident way and his speech was exactly what the speech of a real (not fake) leader should be.
Tokayev had lost it just once albeit not in a rude and a demonstrative manner - he had only raised the voice a little and added some energy to his words.
This happened when he was commenting on the European Parliament’s resolution on the January events in Kazakhstan. It looks like this document irritates him greatly. Perhaps due to the fact that he can do nothing about it. Contrary to his deals with the Western governments, the Kazakh diplomats and influential businessmen, nether now nor in the foreseeable future, will Tokayev be able to reach an agreement with the European parliamentarians.
At the same time, the fact that, in his interview, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan repeated everything he had said before shows quite clearly that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s hands are tied.
And not only by what he has said but by his predecessor at the presidential post, the latter’s allies, the internal political situation and the external circumstances.
This was especially evident when Tokayev continued insisting on an external invasion of the country. This can but produce a sardonic laughter mixed with the tears of the injured.
Accepting the responsibility of Nursultan Nazarbayev as well as his own for the “bloody” January is not feasible for him, either.
One final point. The fact that Tokayev gave the interview in Russian has sparked a wave of discontent in the Kazakh society. However, in our opinion, Tokayev’s decision was based on the desire to achieve a higher efficiency, in other words, the speed and plentitude of the spread information.
For, what he had said was mainly intended for Akorda’s three key audiences -
firstly, for the Russian-speaking Kazakhs,
secondly, for the Russian-speaking audience beyond the Kazakh borders, first of all, the audience in Russia,
thirdly, for the foreign experts, political consultants and officials of the foreign services engaged in the Eurasian affairs. Among them, the number of those speaking Kazakh amounts to low digits; as to the Russian language, many of them know it.
In the first instance, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was perhaps trying to sooth the Russian-speaking Kazakhs among whom the desire to emigrate has probably become stronger.
In the second instance, he was attempting to win over the Russian authorities and those social groups that support the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In the third instance, he wanted to communicate to those working in the “think tanks” and participating in developing foreign policy lines regarding to Kazakhstan among other states that the country is rebuilding its internal political stability and the state power is now in the confident hands of Tokayev.
