Last weekend, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made a working visit to Kazakhstan’s most populated city – Almaty. Judging by the number of the visits and inspections, his schedule was tight. However, it is his talk with representatives of the country’s financial sector has caught our attention.
First of all, due to the fact that, recently, Tokayev has been vigorously trying to make the banks increase the crediting of the national economy. You will find more details on this Akorda-sensitive topic in our publication tittled “Will the Banks Hear Tokayev”.
Second of all, the photos in Akorda’s press-release “President Met with Representatives of Financial Sector” turned out to be quite informative.
Let us begin with the first topic.
On November 19, 2021, speaking before representatives of “the leading financial and banking structure”, the Kazakh President first swept them a curtesy and then warned them, in a tactful manner, that a) increasing the loan provision of physical bodies may lead to serious problems; b) requested that banks treat bad borrowers with more care and c) continued insisting on increasing the loan provision to small and medium-size businesses.
It is hard to say what the meeting participants thought about these helpful hints (orders). However, something tells us that they were not too enthusiastic about them.
What is curious: Akorda’s press-release contains absolutely no information on which representatives of “the leading financial and banking structures” actually participated in the meeting. Meanwhile, such information would be helpful in assessing which of the leading bankers Akorda is receptive to and who among them does not see a point in trying to combine the things that are mutually exclusive.
Unfortunately, we cannot identify the meeting participants with absolute certainty since all of them were wearing masks which makes it hard to sort our who is who on the photos. In any case, it is quite clear that the majority shareholders of the leading Kazakh banks did not participate in the November 19 meeting in Almaty.
In other words, the Kazakh President met not with those determining the market strategy of the latter but with those executing their will and solving tactical problems. In view of this, demanding that these people increase the loan provision to small and medium-size businesses is rather pointless. The top-managers of the banks will act within the limits outlined by the majority shareholders, therefore, are not going to take their cues from what Tokayev has said.
The President has also touched upon the subjects of “introducing the digital tenge that may become the key element of the future financial system”, the crypto currency market “that simply we cannot ignore”, “adapting the financial sector to the demands of the climate agenda” and “the prospects of the atomic power development including the construction of nuclear power plants”.
We are not going to comment on them since, at this point, the are nothing but noise. On the other hand, in the future, they may affect the country’s political developments. But not now.
Basically, we get the impression that Kossym-Jomart Tokayev has made yet another attempt (this time, personally) to convey the desires of Akorda to the financial sector. The problem, however, is that all the majority shareholders (both overground and underground) of the Kazakh banks that are actually Kazakh are linked to the Library. Therefore, it is the Library that they take their cues from. As for the helpful hints of the Elbasy’s successor, the shareholders will take them into consideration but, only in case these hints/orders do not stand on the way of the private interests, will they actually implement them.
Now let’s turn to the photos illustrating Akorda’s press-release. The photos that we consider very informative.
The meeting was attended by the heads of the two key financial agencies – Chairperson of the Agency for Regulation and Development of Financial Market Madina Abylkasymova and Chairperson of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Erbolat Dosayev.
Note that, at the table, the latter was sitting on the President’s left.
At the same time, the photo taken after the meeting looks quite different – it shows Kossym-Jomart Tokayev surrounded by women.
We are certain that one of them is Elena Bakhmutova, the head of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan. As for Erbolat Dosayev, he is standing far from his boss; the fifth person on the left. Given the Kazakh realia, this seems quite remarkable. Perhaps we should allow for the possibility that the President, being a skilful diplomat and a gentleman, chose to sweep a curtesy to the women that participated in the meeting and his administration did not insist on the strict adherence to the protocol.
However, it does look like the personal relationship between Tokayev and Dosayev are not too great, so the latter whose to keep away from his boss.
On the other hand, there could be another explanation that is quite unflattering towards the Kazakh President. Tokayev has so little authority with his staff that even those who must meet with him due to their position try to keep away from him nonetheless.
