The escalation of the conflict between the rich and the poor may soon become one of the most significant results of the coronavirus pandemic. And Kazakhstan, too, is not going to escape this problem since the current authorities have neither intelligence not political will needed to change the current state of affairs in a cardinal way.
It looks like the authorities prefer to go with the flow in the hopes that they will manage to keep the proverbial stability and their own interests intact. So far, they have been successful in their undertaking which can be attested by the absence of any kind of noticeable political and social activity in the Republic, even considering that the pandemic has done a most serious damage to the small and medium-sized businesses by stripping several millions of Kazakhs off the previously excising sources of income and forcing them to solve a number of newly created problems.
The data of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan may serve as yet another confirmation of this fact (albeit an indirect one). The thing is that, according to the official data, real incomes of the Kazakh citizens have decreased by about 2,5%. Here is a quote from press-release 43 of October 26, 2020 titled «The Base Rate Remains Unchanged at 9%» (text in bold by KZ.expert).
«Real incomes of the population in August 2020 continued to decline with a slowdown in real wage growth. The annual decline in real income constituted 2,5%. In January-August 2020, in the structure of nominal incomes of the population, a decrease in the share of income from self-employment and an increase in the share of income from employment and income in the form of transfers were observed. This is accompanied by the continued growth of republican budget expenses for social assistance and social security (in January-August 2020, an increase of 17,6%). In August, the growth of real wages (excluding small enterprises) amounted to 3,5%, in September — 3,0%».
With that, the National Bank data show that, during the period from January 1 to October 1, 2020, the total client liabilities of Kazakhstan’s two-tier banks had grown from 18.096 to 20.706 trillion tenge. In other words, the pandemic and the economic complications caused not just by it and by the collapse of the world oil and other crude materials prices, the freezing of economic activity and free movement of people as well had basically not have any impact on the deposits.
On the other hand, the devaluation of the national currency from 382.58 tenge per US dollar as of January 1, 2020, to 431.82 tenge per US dollar as of October 1, 2020, had played its negative role as well. Nonetheless, if, at the start of the current year, the TTBs client liabilities constituted US47.3 $ bln, then, as of October 1, 2020, they constituted US48 $ bln. In other words, they had grown.
Looking at the National Bank data on the deposits in the deposit-taking organisations, we get a similar picture. For instance, as of the end of December, 2019, the total volume of the deposits constituted 19.022 trillion tenge (10.821 trillion in the national currency; 8.201 trillion in foreign currency). By the end of September, 2020, the total volume of the deposits had grown up to 21.371 trillion tenge (to 12.631 trillion in the national currency; to 8.740 trillion in foreign currency).
In the US dollar terms (as of December 31, 2019, the official exchange rate constituted 381.18 tenge; as of September 30, 2020, 439.51 tenge), it corresponds to 49.9 $ bln and 49.8 $ bln.
Meanwhile, the Kazakh authorities didn’t develop any comprehensive program to support the local business and population akin to those implemented in the developed countries. Moreover, the net external debt of the state sector that includes the Government and the National Bank had not increased during the period of the pandemic. For instance, according to the National Bank data, as of January 1, 2020, it constituted 36.1 $ bln and, by July 1 (no data available for later periods), it had decreased to 34.1 $ bln.
The presented data allow us to make a clear-cut conclusion. So far, the pandemic, overlapping with the internal political difficulties caused by the handing over the presidential authorities from Nazarbayev to Tokayev and the decrease of the oil and other crude materials prices, has not affected bank accounts and deposits of Kazakh legal and physical bodies. In other words, the material difficulties faced by most of the country’s citizens have, to a large extent, spared those who are habitually called wealthy, rich and über-rich.
Of course, the Kazakh citizens have more than enough patience, therefore, we at KZ.expert have no doubt that the upcoming Mazhilis and maslikhats elections will be conducted without any incidents. Moreover, we have also no doubt that, in the first half of 2021, Kazakhstan is not going to repeat the events that, this year, have taken place in Belarus (not to mention Kyrgyzstan).
However, it is also a fact that the people are exchanging and expressing their emotions (in their kitchens or on social media). The only question is when these emotions start splashing out and, most importantly, in what direction? And who, among today’s politicians, will manage to «cop the tube» and use these emotions to reach their own political goals? And what kind of goals will they be? So far, these questions remain unanswered.
