On July 24, 2020, the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kazakhstan held yet another meeting devoted to the upcoming elections to the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament. If we are to believe the CEC, in average 3.4 candidates are going to fight for each deputy’s seat.
To confirm this, let us quote several paragraphs from the agency’s press-release.
«So, as of 6 p.m. of July 23, 2020, the election commissions of the regions, of cities Nur-Sultan, Almaty and Shymkent registered 58 candidates out of the 94 contenders for the 17 deputy’s seats of the Senate of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In average, 3 persons are fighting for each seat. Among the regions, the Nur-Sultan city and the Akmola region have the biggest number of candidates registered — 5 persons.
The registered candidates include 48 (82.8%) men and 10 (17.2%) women (to compare: in 2017, the registered candidates included 47 (90.75) men and 5 (9.3%) women, in 2014 — 51 (96.1%) men and 2 (3.9%) women».
Unluckily to the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kazakhstan and, therefore, Akorda, the country shows zero interest in the upcoming Senate elections. And not only because the Kazakhs en masse are now preoccupied with fighting the COVID-19 and pneumonia, surviving under the conditions of growing unemployment, financial deficit and difficulties faced by small businesses. But also due to the fact that this particular internal political stunt does not interest them in principle. And hasn’t interested them for quite some time.
The reason for such indifference is simple — there is no and there can be no real choice at the Senate elections in Kazakhstan since the Senate is a unique structure created by Nursultan Nazarbayev and his aides as a deceleration for the Lower Chamber. This happened at the times when dissidents were still able to make it to the Mazhilis.
The Senate was the first of Kazakhstan’s elective bodies that «died» as a representative body of power dragging behind it the Mazhilis and the maslikhats that, this year, are to die completely thanks to the elections held on the exclusively party list basis.
To be sure, everything we have said before is no news for the Kazakhs and for those who’ve been interested in the country’s affairs for a long time. Therefore, this article is primarily intended for the international observers who got in Kazakhstan only recently.
By the way we are hopeful that the sharp escalation of the confrontation between the USA and China as well as the extrapolation of their conflict from the political, economic and military spheres to the ideological one will significantly increase the interest to the Republic of Kazakhstan as the state located between the two main opponents of the US and the West.
Going back to the Senate elections, let us name their future winners. Which is not hard to do since Akorda and the Library do not bother too much with a decent orchestration of this political operation not to mention with its promotion in the information field.
As a result of the triple candidate selection (first at the level of the region/city of the Republican significance, then at the level of the Presidential Administration and, finally, at the level of the Library that can block any candidate through Security Council) the electoral winner is determined from the beginning. Then, they select «competitors» from among those who would like to take participation in the op. And those who, for some reason, try to sneak in from outside are cut off very early on at the regional level of the selection.
Since it is the deputies of the maslikhats of all levels of a particular region or city that act the voters, there are people who know all the secrets of local politics and understand how the entire process works. Therefore, by using a simplest cutoff mechanism, for instance asking the question why a regional deputy governor or a regional governor need to waste their precious time nominating themselves if they do not actually want a seat in the Senate; or why a particular candidate is being supported by the maslikhats of several districts at once; or why an acting senator is taking the risk of nominating themselves again, one may, with 99% certainty, name the winners of the August 12, 2020 elections.
The list of the candidates may be downloaded here. Now then, according to our forecast, the following persons are most likely to become the new senators of the Kazakh Parliament:
Akmola region — Bekenov Nurlan Zheksembayevich;
Aktobe region — Kaniyev Bauyrzhan Nuraliyevich;
Almaty region -Dyusembinov Sultan Myrzabekovich;
Atyrau region — Lukpanov Sagyndyk Esengaliyevich;
East-Kazakhstan region. — Bulavkina Olga Alexandrovna;
Zhambyl region — Orynbekov Bekbolat Serikbekovich;
Karaganda region — Ershov Sergey Mikhaylovich;
Kostanay region — Karplyuk Sergey Alekseyevich;
Kyzylorda region — Alnazarova Akmaral Shapipbayevna;
Mangistau region — Aldashev Suindyk Tasemenovich;
Pavlodar region — Nukhuly Altynbek;
North-Kazakhstan region — Perepechina Olga Valentinovna;
Turkestan region — Bektayev Ali Abdikarimovich;
Nur-Sultan city — Kurishbayev Akhylbek Kazhigulovich;
Almaty city — Makezhanov Sultanbek Almasbekovich;
Shymkent city — Kapbarova Aygul Zharylkasynovna.
West-Kazakhstan remains the only region where we were unable to predict the winner. Not because it is impossible but due to the fact that it requires a deeper research on whom Akorda and the Library have chosen. We see no point in spending our time on doing this since this exception only confirms the rule — in Kazakhstan, the citizens’ right to elect representative bodies exists only on paper.
