Amid the worries caused by the coronavirus pandemics, the weakening of the national currency, the imposition of the state of emergency and the isolation of Almaty and Nur-Sultan, the pre-holiday publication of Exclusive.kz «What Is Tokayev To Do in the Nearest Future» is unlikely to catch the public eye.
Meanwhile, the article presents quite an interesting mixture of a forecast and a suggestion to two influential people, President Kossym-Jomart Tokayev and Chairman of the Management Board of the Atameken National Entrepreneurs Chamber Timur Kulibayev to form a political union.
To confirm our observation, let us give you several quotes from the article (text in bold by kz.expert).
«Coronavirus has made it clear that Kazakhstan needs changes, that the old ways will no longer work and that it’s becoming increasingly difficult solving the problems by „pouring“ money onto them. And it’s not even an issue whether the country has it or not — it does. The main question is how to redistribute it. We know that the lion share of the country’s earnings is controlled by a couple of hundred people. And it doesn’t matter where they are — inside the power or right next to it or whether we know their names or can only guess of their existence. But Tokayev simply must come to the negotiating table with them. And these negotiations will not be easy. For starters, let us try to determine who these people are and then figure out what he will have to talk to them about».
«There is yet another subgroup — the state oligarchs. They too are close to the Leader of the Nation and, as a result of the first years of their patron’s reign, have large state property assets to manage. We are talking about practically all the quasi-governmental companies and their unofficial king Timur Kulibayev.
He is probably the most unique person that has managed to achieve the impossible — retain control of the main assets of the country without being dragged into the inter-elite wars. At least not in a fatal way.
It is Timur Kulibayev who, today, represents the most influential figure successfully balancing between the father-in-law, the President and the oligarchy. Contrary to Dariga Nursultanovna who’s got a negative public rating (perhaps not without his help), Kulibayev, thanks to keeping a certain distance from his father-in-law, has the common business-interests with almost all influential people in the country. And this is nothing but a stroke of a master. Even though he’s got his own sins (if not more so than those rejected by society on the fundamental level). For instance, Dariga Nazarbayeva whose own large media empire cannot shield her from the public attacks.
And vise versa, Kulibayev’s minimal public exposure (especially considering his status as the head of such an active structure as NEC Atameken) takes him out of the domain of public criticism even though the size of his fortune, even the officially-recorded one, boggles the imagination and cannot be compared with the „modest“ assets of Dariga Nursultanovna. Perhaps this is that very case when money prefer silence.
Kulibayev is the king of an enormous ecosystem of the quasi-governmental sector. De-facto, he controls at least two quarters of Kazakhstan’s GDP. Kulibayev himself is a whole part of the elite. It is with him that Tokayev must get to talking. And perhaps due to this very reason, they fear this potential union so much in the „Library“. Even though such a scenario would have been a most pragmatic one, albeit to the detriment of the ethical principles of both actors.
Kulibayev is too wealthy to have political ambitions, but the fact remains that it is his financial earnings ingeniously integrated into the system of the Kazakh economy that present the main political problem for Nazarbayev. If Timur leaves the system, the rest will have to leave as well. Therefore there is little change for this happening. Even if Timur Askarovich, on some whim or a combination of factors, would want to get out of the game, his team that has its own impressive share of earnings in his empire would not let him do so. Perhaps, at this point, Kulibayev does not even realize where, how much and by what means he and his people are earning money now.
However, there is yet another fundamental threat. A state oligarch is a status given by the state which means that it may be taken away anytime which may potentially result in the collapse of the entire empire. And it is exactly due to the size of this empire that he is particularly vulnerable in the face of the power rotation and the unavoidable property redivision. With that, Timur and his team have little opportunities for a career growth. Not one of them will want to return to the official power system — too many personal risks, too much responsibility».
Let us disagree with the author that Timur Kulibayev:
а) is a unique figure in the ruling elite that has retained control of the main assets of the country without being dragged into the inter-elite wars. At least not in a fatal way.
b) currently represents the most influential figure successfully balancing between Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kossym-Jomart Tokayev and the oligarchy;
c) contrary to Dariga Nazarbayeva, enjoys a relatively positive reputation and has the common business-interests with almost all influential people in the country;
d) de-facto controls at least two quarters of the GDP.
These exaggerations, in our opinion, are sometimes insignificant but, more often than not, they aren’t. We can speak about this with certainty because we do know (and soon tell the reader about it) how the closest relatives and allies of the First President had «earned» their first billions. In particular, Timur Kulibayev and then Bulat Utemuratov will become the first «heroes» of the series of these publications.
Now then, the documents we have at our disposal suggest that the Chairman of NEC Atameken and his wife Dinara Kulibayeva became billionaires thanks to the use of the three standard Kazakh money-making techniques.
First, sell a Kazakh assets (and just from the oli& gas sector) to a big foreign investor for cheap with the simultaneous obtainment of the commission that sometimes surpasses the sum received by the state.
Second, purchase an expensive foreign asset through a quasi-governmental structure; then transfer a part obtained by the seller to the people controlling the transaction.
Third, overstate the sum of the goods and services purchasing transaction and understate the selling prices for the Kazakh products, also include affiliated structures in the trading schemes for the purpose of income extraction.
We also categorically disagree with Exclusive.kz’ statement that Timur Kulibayev enjoys a better reputation in the country than say Dariga Nazarbayeva.
In our opinion, this is a very recent trend that manifested itself when the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter had become the main contender for the crown and, simultaneously, the talk of the town. In the past, however, thanks to the publications of the already non-existent Respublika (among other things), the reputation of Kulibayev and Co used to be more than negative. And it will invariably get even worse in the future since the stirring up of the political process and the inter-elite wars will affect him, especially if Timur Kulibayev tries and form a union with Kossym-Jomart Tokayev in order to oppose Dariga Nazarbayeva and the other competitors in power.
Apart from that, let us remind you that the pre-2008 period was the time when the schemes of stealing the state property, and not just in Kazakhstan, were not too complex. And even though they were implemented with the help of the offshore buffers, nonetheless, they can be figured out quite easily. And during those blessed times of the total prosperity, everyone — the state structures, the business, the civil society and even the press of many countries — was sympathetic towards them.
Now everything has changed in a cardinal way which is clear from the problems Dariga Nazarbayeva and Nurali Aliyev are experiencing in the UK. However, no one can now remedy the situation by say revising the documents and obliterating the bank transactions.
Nonetheless, Timur Kulibayev (both together with his official wife Dinara Kulivayeva and alone) truly is one of the most influential people in Nursultan Nazarbayev’s circle, in the ruling elite and in the country in general. For this reason, it will be interesting to see what moves he is going to make (or not) under the conditions when everyone in the country, without exception, has to establish their position.
This is how the issue is presented in the publication we are commenting on.
«So, in March 2019, Kazakhstan entered the official phase of the transition even though the rotation of the elites had started much earlier than that. The Leader of the Nation had „checkmated“ by formally leaving his post albeit he still continues staying put. Nonetheless, the people’s consciousness has started undergoing the irreversible changes related to the overripe need for the reforms.
Most importantly, the inner elite changes have started as well. Whether we want it or not, where the duality of power exists or not, but, for the first time in thirty years, the county has the two decision-making centers and those who carry these decisions out will have to choose whose decisions to implement.
And here the existing non-transparency of the political decision-making process continues to lead to the distortion of reality and the distribution of a variety of speculations. Apart from that, the informal influence of individual officials today is de-facto much stronger than the official power of the Prime Minister of even the President himself. Tokayev cannot afford to quarrel with say Chairman of Samruk-Kazyna Yessimov or the heads of the law-enforcement block, for instance, Masimov.
In short, we are now observing a complex process of the redistribution of influence. Which means that the negotiation process or at least the conditions for its start have ripen. At least it is clear with whom to negotiate. But on what subject… it is going to be the biggest mystery of the near future…».
