In our article Why Esimov Went Radio Silence on Ivolga, we suggest that, if entrepreneur and ex-magnate Vasiliy Rosinov «is found not-guilty or gets a nominal sentence, it will mean that he is still Akhmetzhan Esimov’s business-partner or that the latter depends on him in some way». 

So, judging by the sentence pronounced by Court #2 of Kostanay on March 2, 2020, — to find the accused guilty of violating Article 195, Part 4, Section 2 («Inflicting material damage through fraud or trust abuse») of Kazakhstan’s Criminal Code and to sentence him to 2 years and 6 months of restriction of liberty which, by the Kazakh standards, cannot even be called punishment — our assumption is if not 100% then 99% correct. 

Here is a quote from Inbusiness.kz publication «The Court Passes a Sentence Upon Former Head of Ivolga Holding Vasiliy Rozinov» (text in bold by kz.expert). 

«Based on the verdict reached by Court #2 of Kostanay, Vasiliy Rozinov has been sentenced to 2 years and 6 months of liberty restriction in accordance with Article 195, Part 4, Section 2 („Inflicting material damage through fraud or trust abuse“) of the Kazakh Criminal Code. The accused is going to be on probation for the duration of the entire sentence. Vasiliy Rozinov is not allowed to leave town or change the place of residence without a special permission. He is also prohibited from attending amusement facilities and places of entertainment and leave the house from 10 p.m. till 6 a.m. In the event of violation of these rules, the restriction of liberty will be replaced with deprivation of liberty for the duration of the unserved term. The custody imposed on the property by the examining court of the capital has been lifted. The entrepreneur’s assets will not be confiscated.

Judge Batyrbek Kudabayev of Court #2 explained that Vasiliy Rozinov’s statements on him having no intention to commit fraud were found plausible. As well as his explanations of the reasons for the accumulation of debt: the crop failure and the tenge devaluation. At the same time, the court found the arguments of Yelena Revedinskaya solid. She stipulated that the accused had hidden the information on the overdue payments of the other loans. Therefore, the court agreed with the arguments that the bank had suffered a material damage. 

In the course of the trial, the prosecutor was asking for 6.5 years of imprisonment at a medium-security facility with the confiscation of the property and deprivation of all the state decorations. The prosecutor stated that any other form of punishment would not help the accused to reform. Talking about the property deprivation, the prosecution demanded the assets of the 27 enterprises belonging to Vasiliy Rozinov and his relatives to be confiscated. Vasiliy Rosinov himself pleaded not guilty and, during his allocution, repeated that nothing had been done intentionally».

We are not going to either condemn or defend Vasiliy Rozinov, however, we do believe that his sentence (even if they challenge it which we doubt) is politically motivated. And not only because it has undoubtedly been influenced (if not directly and personally then indirectly and inadvertently for sure) by Akhmetzhan Esimov, the First President’s nephew who is also one of the most influential people in the country.

But also due to its symbolic nature. For the court has put a definite stop to Akorda’s previous agricultural policy that began in 1997 or so. Back then, amid the total economic chaos, the authorities decided to put a special emphasis on large business-structures (by the way, this decision was made with direct and active involvement of Akhmetzhan Esimov who, at the time, was in charge of the agricultural sector) that, by that time, had had already gained (or had been wanting to gain) control of the elevators and major grain reception centers. 

The latter served as the supporting points through which the newly minted large land owners and their companies (including Vladimir Rozinov and Ivolga) did not simply enter the sector successfully but became its key players. Then, hundreds of other legal bodies and hundreds thousands of hectares of farmland ended up under their control too. And they had been, if not prospering, then at least existing for quite some time until, finally, they lost the competition, first of all, to imported goods.

So now, when this business-model has suffered the final defeat which is confirmed by the unfortunate fate of several other large structures, the question arises — what’s going to happen next?

The fate of Vasiliy Rozinov is not hard to predict — he is going to serve his sentence (let us repeat that, by the Kazakh standards, it’s like a child’s play and is unlikely to impede on his current lifestyle) and will continue living his life in comfort. 

As for the future of the Chairman of the Management Board of SWF Samruk-Kazyna, it is not hard to predict either. Even if Akhmetzhan Esimov is pensioned off or, on the contrary, gets a raise — for instance, becomes the Head of the Senate instead of his niece, he will nonetheless remain the «puppet master» of Akorda.

But when it comes to the country’s agricultural complex, everything gets very unclear and anyone would hardly dare to predict what the future holds for this economy sector.