The campaign on reelecting Kazym-Zhomart Tokayev the head of Kazakhstan has already begun even though, officially, he has not yet been nominated. This is particularly evident from fact that the pro-government media and the allegedly independent bloggers have become increasingly active in their praise of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s successor at the presidential post.

The number of such publications is growing every day. In illustration of this, let us cite a couple of materials in which Tokayev is all sugared up, in a manner of speaking, and put on a pedestal.

For instance, in Bnews.kz’ article with a telling title “A Diplomat, an Intellectual and a Twitter Aficionado: What Do We Know about Tokayev?”, the interim president is said to be 1) a polyglot, 2) a world-class diplomat, 3) one of the most transparent politicians, 4) a politician with an untarnished reputation, 5) one of the most assertive and strong-minded politicians.

Obviously, all these statements are arguable and can be contested, but the problem is that, given the near absence of the independent press, the blockings of social media and the persecution of the bloggers who dare to speak against the acting authorities or their individual practices, it is hard to withstand this snowball of the publications. On the other hand, the real effectiveness of the Kazakh pro-government propaganda/advertising machine has traditionally been low and is unlikely to improve in the near future. And even Tokayev’s “emergence” on social media will not help to raise it. Alas, apart from the similar age and the cared-for look, he and Trump have little in common.

Thus, Akorda and its spin doctors will have to try very hard to turn Tokayev not just into the First President’s successor but a statesman capable of leading his country and his fellow citizens towards the bright future and, most importantly, of reaching it.

In view of this, we have begun preparing a special report on the second president of Kazakhstan and, already at this point, we can state that, of the five traits named by Bnews.kz, Tokayev only possesses one – indeed, he is a polyglot.

As for him being a world-class diplomat and one of Kazakhstan’s most transparent politicians, these things have nothing to do with reality. Actually, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev is one of the most non-transparent statesmen and not only because he is an old- (Soviet-) school diplomat and, from the get-go, has been trained to be economical with emotions and keep his tongue between the teeth but also thanks to his political cowardness that he had demonstrated, time and again, when holding the high-rank governmental posts. 

As for Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev’s untarnished reputation, this statement is false too. Yes, against the other allies and relatives of Nursultan Nazarbayev and the Leader of the Nation himself, he looks all right. But this is due to the overlapping of the two factors: first, the lack of interest to his persona on the part of the press, the civil society and investigators; second, the abnormal (according to our insiders) personal and professional wariness of the Tokayevs – Kasym-Zhomart Kemelevich and his (officially) only son Timur.

However, now that the former head of the Senate have become the President (albeit, so far, interim president), the situation has changed. Now he is at the center of attention, and the number of the well-informed people who can and, likely, will become his opponents or ill-wishers has grown dramatically. In view of this, we are unhesitant in our prediction that the number of the compromising materials on Nazarbayev’s successor is to rise in a drastic fashion.

We believe they are likely to include these subjects:

• the relationships of Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev with a troika of Eurasian billionaires – Alexander Mashkevich, Patokh Shodiyev and Alidzhan Ibragimov;
• the private enterprises belonging to Timur Tokayev and those controlled by him;
• the apartment in Geneva at Chemin Gilbert Trolliet 3 with the area of more than 400 square meters and the price of several million Swiss francs as well as the story of its purchase and the source of the money for its purchase;
• Timur Tokayev’s citizenship (based on the information we received, at the moment, he has at least two passports or may be even three).

Finally, there is also Tokayev’s co-father-in-law, former Secretary of State and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kanat Saudbayev, one of the most notorious Kazakh statesmen. Against this backdrop, the story of Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev’s divorce and the existence of another wife or the privatization of the reception house of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will seem like a little thing not even worthy of mentioning.