President Nazarbayev’s address to the people traditionally includes an extensive social block. This time, however, it’s turned out to be so big that one can draw only one conclusion: Presidential Administration wants to get something very valuable from the people since it is prepared to offer that much of the manna from heaven.

On October 5, 2018, Nursultan Nazarbayev gave his traditional annual speech addressed to the people of Kazakhstan. The text of this “program” document immediately appeared on Akorda’s official website. One must keep in mind, however, that it differs significantly from the live version of the President’s speech.

The thing is that, giving his speeches (prepared by the Presidential Administration in collaboration with the Government, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and other agencies), Nazarbayev always departs from the text in order to, first, liven the audience with his emotional comments, second, present his personal opinion regarding certain events, officials and their actions, third, emotionally mobilize the listeners to carry out his orders. This time, Nazarbayev, once again, has actively followed this pattern.

We do not see a point in analyzing both the official text of the address and the oral additions made by Nazarbayev while reading the document since they are to be commented on in the press and on the internet for quite some time. Note, it will happen not so much at the citizens’ initiatives but as a part of the state informational request. Thus, we will only present our observations and one conclusion in re this development.

1. Due to the fact that Nazarbayev’s October 5 Astana address was broadcasted live in its entirety, the video seems to be comprehensive from top to bottom.

The viewers of the older generation who still remember the Soviet Party forums had undoubtedly noticed the striking difference with the past. In the Soviet times, the Presidium was located on the stage, therefore, the First Secretary of the Communist Party was one of those sitting at the Presidium. To make the speech, he would have to stand up and take the speaker’s stand. But, on October 5, 2018, in Astana, Nursultan Nazarbayev sat at a long table alone and, while giving his speech, continued sitting.

We think this is a very colorful, clear, and exhaustive representation of the political system that Nursultan Nazarbayev and his allies have created. In terms of the authoritarianism, this system almost rivals the Soviet one; and, if it hasn’t become a totalitarian system yet, it is only because the authorities do not have enough political mercilessness and, besides, the external political situation has changed.

2. The video of Nazarbayev’s speech clearly shows that the President was not so much concerned with the reading of the official text of the address as with the “hammering” in his subordinates and their “after action reviews”.

For the viewers of the older generations this is no news, either – this is how the overwhelming majority of the so called “experienced managers” handled the operational meetings in the Soviet times (the practice that is so loved by Nazarbayev’s colleague from Belarus today).

3. Nazarbayev’s oral departures from the official text of the address were mainly directed at the Kazakhstan ruling elite and the state officials. It was from these departures that the latter received the most important and valuable hints as well as the information in regard to what the President really thinks about the latest resonant events and how he assesses the activities of certain officials.

4. The fact that, for the first time in recent years, Nursultan Nazarbayev personally read the text of the Presidential address (moreover, his entire speech was broadcasted live) is not a coincidence. By the looks of it, the President and his Administration wanted to demonstrate to all Kazakhstanis and the concerned international audience that Nursultan Nazarbayev was quite healthy and strong, otherwise, he would not have been able to make a one hour and a half speech albeit sitting at the table.

5. What is also not a coincidence is the fact that, for the first time, the Presidential address to the people of Kazakhstan was made as early as at the beginning of October. Among other things, this means that Akorda is getting ready for something that requires preparations and, for some overpowering reasons, cannot be rushed.

6. The Presidential address traditionally includes an extensive social block. This time, however, it’s turned out to be so big that one can draw only one conclusion: Presidential Administration wants to get something very valuable from the people since it is prepared to offer that much of the manna from heaven.

Based on these observations, we have reached a conclusion that Nursultan Nazarbayev has decided to be reelected as the President earlier than planned – at the beginning of 2019 or even at the end of 2018.

We do not allow for any other possibility, like, say Nazarbayev’s taking fallback position of the Head of the Security Council and governing the country from there while giving the Presidential chair to someone else. This decidedly contradicts both the political logic of the Kazakhstan authoritarian system and Nursultan Nazarbayev’s personality for he trusts no one, not even his closest allies.

The reasons why the President has decided to act this way are clear. Neither the massive state investments in the economy and the social sphere nor the recovery of the hydrocarbon prices and the export growth has helped to overcome the ongoing socio-economic crisis.

Besides, in the past, Nursultan Nazarbayev used to employ this tactic, too. He would always hold early elections to be reelected while the situation in the country was relatively tolerable but was certain to get worse. If you recall, most elections in the history of the sovereign and independent Kazakhstan have been held ahead of schedule.