It looks like the coronavirus pandemics in Kazakhstan is not going to end for quite some time, first of all due to the inability of the authoritarian political system to operate in the extreme conditions for a relatively long period of time. And if the country-wide quarantines will persist for several weeks (months), a significant growth of the protest sentiment in the society is unavoidable.
On the other hand, this growth is unlikely to result in the cardinal political changes in the Republic. Nonetheless, in our opinion, it can influence the internal political landscape of the ruling elite. We are certain that a part of the elite groups will desire to redirect the growing discontent of the citizens towards their opponents and competitors in order to push them over or move them away from the «food reserves».
As an example, we quite allow for the appearance of the slogans related to the «deDarigization», «deTimurization» and «deBolatization» of the economy directed against the clans of Dariga Nazarbayeva, Timur Kulibayev and Bolat Nazarbayev, respectively. The clans whose economic interests and the spheres of influence are much wider than it may seem to a casual observer.
The thing is that, in such clans, each «client», apart from their boss (benefactor), has their own business (big, mid-size, small — underline as appropriate). As a result, Kazakhstan has formed the business-empires whose limits are known to no one apart from the actual «minions» and their opponents in a particular sector of the market.
As for the leaders of the clans, as a rule, they learn what they are actually protecting in the three cases: a) when a conflict develops and a personal interference (protection) is needed; b) when they can receive a profit (a share) from the «client» that is of interest to them; c) when it is necessary to protect the safety and the interests of a person very close to them, for instance, children and grandchildren.
In their turn, the «oligarchs» (those same aforementioned Dariga Nazarbayeva, Timur Kulibayev and Bolat Nazarbayev) are well aware of the dangers and have long been trying to hide their businesses, business-interests and the spheres of influence inside the country, as a rule, by using agents that operate as their «front» (and often in two, three or more echelons).
In each group (clan), the number of such agents amounts to not even dozens but to hundreds. On the other hand, most of these people are practically unknown to the general public as oppose to the few that make it to the lists of the Kazakh version of the Forbes magazine.
Let us illustrate our prediction by citing a business-project that every Kazakh citizen who drives a car is familiar with. We are talking about a system of the public and road safety called Sergek.
Here is a quote from the sergek.kz website that belongs to Open Technologies Croup.
«Sergek is an intelligence system of video monitoring, analysis and prognostication that includes:
A network of visual registration modules monitoring the key zones of a city space — highways, squares, transport junctions, building surrounding grounds etc.
A system of image recording and recognition
An intelligence system of data processing and analysing».
Kazakh drivers do have a lot of grievances about this system albeit, for our purposes, we are going to concentrate on something else — the fact that this business-project has been implemented only because, according to our insiders, no other than Altay Kulibayev (Timur and Dinara Kulibayevs’ son and, therefore, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s grandson) represents the end co-owner of the project.
Here is how the scheme works. Open Technologies Group LLP registered on November 4, 2010, and last reregistered on December 26, 2019, has five founders: Auyelbek Tokzhanov, Aset Akhmetov, Aliya Akhmetova, Serikbol Kudaybergenov, Bagdat Musin. However, Open Technologies Group is not operating alone but in consortium with Korkem Telecom LLP.
Let us quote some passages from the interview with Kayrat Akhmetov, the head of the consortium, given to online publication Digital Kazakhstan (text in bold be kz.expert).
«Kazakhstan, too, has got many young specialists creating different IT-projects. One of them — Kayrat Akhmetov, the head of consortium Open Technologies Group/Korkem Telecom (Sergek). He is the creator of Sergek, an intelligence system of video monitoring, prognostication and analysis. In the course of Speaker Night organised by Astana Hub, Kayrat Akhmetov has informed the guests on his professional experience, on the ups and downs of the projects he has been involved in.
«Sergek has been created for the purpose of ensuring safety and decreasing the number of traffic violations. Currently, Astana has 6000 cameras installed on the highways, 4000 cameras installed in the crowded public areas and another 3000 cameras installed in the shopping malls and the business-centres. Also, together with Astana’s prosecutorial authorities, we have developed a mobile app for writing incident reports. We have provided the police with the tablets that’ve got this mobile app installed. This app contains the data on tax and fee non-payers. The Sergek cameras register all passing cars and not just those what commit violations. If the driver is a delinquent who has violated some regulation at some point or has not been paying child support, the police see them in this database. The policemen equipped with the tablets stand approximately 100 meters behind a Sergek and receive push messages on the violators that must be stopped«, explains Kayrat Akhmetov».
Aset Akhmetov is another well-known figure involved in the Sergek project. Those who wish to learn more about this person (possibly Kayrat Akhmetov’s brother), may search the Internet or use the following links — this and that one (text available in Russian).
As always in such cases, business-project Sergek has its opponents whose views are also available on the Internet, for instance, here. (Text available in Russian).
Now then, Korkem Telecom LLP (how it is involved in the scheme is described above) registered on March 4, 2011, and last reregistered on August 23, 2011, has two founders: CaspianEnergy LLP and Open Technologies Group LLP. In its turn, CaspianEnergy founded on August 26, 2005, and last reregistered on November 14, 2019, belongs to Ayman Sarsenova and Saltanat Karabalina.
According to our insiders, it is behind these two representatives of Kazakhstan’s well-known families that Altay Kulibayev is hiding.
There is plenty of information on the richest Kazakhs’ (Dinara and Timur Kulibayevs’) son on the Internet (both in its Kazakh and its Russian sector) although his name is not mentioned on the Forbes list yet. However, judging by how Segrek is being entrenched in the country and what profits (rumour has it) it generates, he may end up on the Forbes list quite soon.