The recent arrest of certain Dauren Abdykhamitov in Almaty whose name has been mentioned in the Kazakh media in connection to the uber-scandalous case of LRT may do a serious damage to the clan of the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva and her son Nurali Aliyev. Let is explain why.
Commenting on the unexpected dismissal of Dariga Nazarbayeva from the elective post of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament and, therefore, form her being the third officially important person in the country, we have arrived at the conclusion that these developments pose no threat to the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter and her clan. Provided, of course, that she «contains her political ambitions and swallows the feelings hurt by her father».
However, this forecast has been made for a year at the most. And not only because the passing of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (that will undoubtedly be unexpected and will serve as a cause for the rebuilding of the authoritarian political system) as well as the bursts of the infightings in the ruling elite can’t help but weaken the standing of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s closest relatives (first of all his three eldest daughters and their current husbands). There is also at least two factors that can negatively influence the fate of Ms. Nazarbayeva.
The first one is well-known. It is the expensive London real estate that the ex-Speaker of the Senate and her eldest son Nurali Aliyev have, so far, been able to defend in the British court. However, since the law-enforcement agencies of this country have already announced that they are to continue the investigation, it is possible that, in a couple of years, this story will have a sad ending for the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter. And it may end not only with the confiscations of the real estate but with a criminal persecution in several foreign jurisdictions other than UK.
The inter-elite infightings are going to invariably become the second factor that may negatively influence the fate of Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan. And their stirring up, according to our insiders, has already begun. Note that it is happening not from the above with the participation of the key players (such as Timur Kulibayev who has long been suspected of a strong dislike of his official wife’s the big sister) but from the below.
In our opinion, such infightings are simply unavoidable due to not just subjective but objective reasons. The thing is that the Kazakh ruling elite consists (is formed) of a great number of clans only several of which are publicly known. First of all, we are talking about the super-clan of Nursultan Nazarbayev himself. This clan, in its turn, consists of several other clans of his closest relatives that, in their turn, form the other sub-clans.
This kind of clan system is strongly reminiscent of a feudal one; only this one has teared itself away from its agricultural basis. The rest, however, is very similar. The only difference is that, instead of a king, Kazakhstan has the «Leader of the Nation» that has given away the sectors of the economy and business, the positions and, therefore, the influence in the state apparatus and the quasi-governmental economy to his relatives and allies.
In other words, Nursultan Nazarbayev is performing the role of the main feudal lord — the master of the country and those to whom he did good or who was able to make their way achieving high positions and were accepted in such capacity take up the role of the vassals. In their turn, these important vassals play the role of the feudal lords in relation to the less important figures. And this system runs through Kazakhstan from top to bottom.
However, since the land no longer serves as the basis for this quasi-feudal system, it turns out that these «pyramids» co-exist everywhere and in everything, in all the spheres of the human life. They overlap and cross one another both personally (when a certain businessman, official or civic leader is included in several such «pyramids» simultaneously or is trying to fit into them) and economically and bureaucratically. As a result, any serious reshuffle above is invariably and very quickly projected to the below and activates the lower echelons. With that, this often happens without and order from the above or even without it being informed of such developments.
So, according to our insiders, the «drive» against Dariga Nazarbayeva’s clan has already started. And, in our opinion, it could not but do since the fall of Dariga Nazarbayeva has seriously weaken the fear and cauthuousness that had previously restrained the activity of a lot of people from the below. Now this lot is ready and is going to solve its private tasks hoping that its activity will not be suppressed or become dangerous in the event of an open conflict.
There’s a lot of such intersecting points especially since they are being formed literally every day. Of course, quite often the problems are also solved «downstairs» and never reach the «above».
By way of example of the drive against Dariga Nazarbayeva, we will cite the case that has a capacity of growing to the size that may become critical for Dariga Nazarbayeva and Nurali Aliyev.
We are talking about the recent arrest of certain Dauren Abdykhamitov in Almaty. His last name has already been mentioned in the Kazakh media in relation to the uber-scandalous LRT case. Unfortunately, we have not been able to find Mr. ABdykhambetov’s biography in open sources. Nonetheless we can say that he used to chair RTRK Kazakhstan JSC which he left after a high-profile scandal. He also used to work at the Atameken National Entrepreneurs Chamber and in several other more or less notable structures.
According to our insiders, the arrest of Dauren Abdykhamitov who had already been wanted in connection with the LRT case, was conducted by the siloviks only after Dariga Nazarbayeva had lost the chair of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament.
The reason for that we see in the fact that this person is very close to both Dariga herself and her son Nurali Aliyev. Abdykhamitov had tightly cooperated with the latter when the eldest grandson of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan worked as a Deputy of the Mayor of Astana (currently Nur-Sultan). As for Ms. Nazarbayeva, the arrested, apart from other things, used to represent her interests in the United Arab Emirates, among others things, by solving the everyday life problems of her daughter Venera who resides there with her husband Dalen Chayzhunusov.
Thus, Dauren Abdykhamitov is a very well-informed person who can tell many things to the investigators on the subject of the scandalous project in Nur-Sultan as well as on the business and personal monetary and other operations that Dariga Nazarbayeva and Nurali Aliyev’s clan conducted.
Of course, it is not a given that this is going to happen especially since Nursultan Nazarbayev is unlikely to let anyone to «drown» his eldest daughter. However, in this case, something else is important — the process has already started.
The confections of the arrested may very well become that very straw that broke a camel’s back. If not right now, then in a year or so.
And, if yet another involvee of the LRT case, the former Head of the Astana LRT company Talgat Arden who is close to Nurali Aliyev and is allegedly residing in Turkey decides to return to the country, the risks for the clan of Dariga Nazarbayeva and her son will become critical.