A Forecast for Aisultan Nazarbayev

The high-profile scandal caused by Aisultan Nazarbayev’s revelations have done a serious political damage to his mother, the Speaker of the Senate of Kazakhstan’s Parliament and to his grandfather, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The scale of this damage can be fully comprehended only after a lapse of time. In view of this, the question arises – what moves can Akorda and the Library make in these circumstances?

There can be several scenarios. Let’s begin with the simplest one – Aisultan Nazarbayev is locked up in a mental hospital in the UK or Kazakhstan and is kept there until he is forgotten. Of course, while, in Kazakhstan, the doctors and other hospital staff will do what they are told, in the UK, something like this is probably not going to work and, as time passes, the out-of-favor Kazakh “prince” may gain his liberty and start acting flaky again.

Amid the latest developments, Dariga and perhaps Nursulan Nazarbayev have found themselves in the position that many other parents of drug-users and alcoholics share. Why do we say “perhaps” in regard to the Leader of the Nation? Because, according to our sources, he, even before the 2019 events, had shut the door on his grandson and chose not to save him from his problems and his own self.

If this information is correct, the only person upon whom Aisultan can rely is his mother. We allow for the possibility that other members of the family may try and help him too, however, they do not have as many possibilities as Dariga, therefore, we should probably not even factor them in. At the same time, our sources could not answer the question whether Dariga is going to rescue her son.

Meanwhile, the flood of information on Aisultan Nazarbayev that is pouring out of Akorda contains two alarming aspects.

The first one lies in the fact that, contrary to Kazakhstan’s usual practice of hushing up the scandals involving the members of the Leader of the Nation’s family, this time, many a pro-governmental media have covered the issue in detail and without hiding their derision combined with mockery.

According to our sources, this was the result of Akorda’s unofficial order allegedly given by Minister of Information and Social Development Dauren Abayev.

We are unaware of the reasons why Tokayev’s Administration (undoubtedly, with the approval or silent consent of the Library) decided not to suppress the scandal around the Leader of the Nation’s grandson but to stir it up instead. It is possible that they wanted to demonstrate the democratic nature of the system – as in this can happen in Kazakhstan too. Of course, this is just our guesswork.

The second alarming aspect lies in the fact that, according to the same sources, Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter Dariga and her current husband Kayrat Sharipbayev, the Chairman of the KazTransGas JSC Board of Directors, have virtually no allies inside the Leader of the Nation’s immediate circle. In other words, if the scandal around her son is to continue, she and the clan she leads will find themselves in a difficult position.

We are not going to give you a detailed analysis why Ms. Nazarbayeva has found herself in political isolation. However, we will remark that virtually everyone in the country (from the common citizens to the experts and high-rank officials) suspect her of wanting to become her father’s real successor at the presidential post. Apart from that, her actions that clearly go beyond her predecessor’s practices at the post of the Speaker reinforce these suspicions.

In other words, Dariga Nazarbayeva has been placed in a critical position not only as a mother but as a politician. This begs the question – how is she going to get out of this tough spot?

According to our sources, some people familiar with the practices of the Kazakh secret service (including the mechanisms of the lynching of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s political opponents) believe that Aisultan may end up in a bad way. Who can prevent anyone from giving him a bad drug or an overdose while he is in the hospital or after he gets out of there?

As inhumane and cynical as it may sound, the death of the Leader of the Nation’s grandson would solve the problem he created. Moreover, it would play to Dariga Nazarbayeva’s advantage.

Let us make an immediate proviso that this scenario is just conjecture based on the understanding of both the tragic nature and the hopelessness of the situation. For our part, we do hope that the doctors will be able to cure Aisultan. After all they did manage to save Aliya Nazarbayeva who used to have the same problem – with the same type of drugs and the same kind of grave consequences.

Although Aliya’s story was being zealously hushed up back in the day, they did not manage to cover it up completely. Let us remind you that we are talking about how the third daughter of the First President, stoned and naked, got behind the wheel and tried to drive off the premises of the residence. And when her bodyguard from the Presidential Security Service tried to stop her and shut the gate in front of her, she ran him over with her car. Fortunately, the officer was not killed although he did have to leave the service.  

So, theoretically, Aisultan Nazarbayev can be saved too. The only question is whether he himself will want it and whether he will have such possibility.


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