On July 6th 2017 Nursultan Nazarbaev celebrate his 77th birthday. As always the case, close ones and allies of Kazakhstani president gave him presents, the main ones being resonant official events, related to International exhibition EXPO-2017 and Summit of head of states of SCO members, as well as renaming of capital’s airport in his honor.
Usually after his birthday Nazarbaev takes a short vacation, which he spends at one of his residences. However, even on vacation he can’t let himself relax. In this period, elbasy unofficially meets with a wide range of people, in order to get information from first hands, measure the mood in the ruling elite and understand processes happening within it.
As a rule, it is during the vacation that he determines his domestic policy for the next few months, deciding at the same time what and how should be done, who and where should be moved, to what government’s attention should be paid. This is why his closest entourage, can’t relax during summer.
This year is characterized by noticeable increase of two influence groups: eldest daughter of the president Dariga Nazarbaev and her allies, and the head of administration of the president Adilbek Jaksybekov and first vice-PM Mamin.
Jaksybekov’s group, using the fact that Mamin occupies the position of the first vice-PM in the cabinet of ministers and in the government he is responsible for operational issues, has started to dominate in the government apparatus recently.
Dariga Nazarbaev, in turn has demonstrated to competitors and opponents, what happens to those who do not take her seriously – the get removed from offices and get put in jail, regardless of their ranks.
It is evident, that despite recovery of economic growth in the country, albeit quite nominal, since it is provided largely due to favorable price situation, there are enough problems in Kazakh economy and social sphere. But most importantly, there is a transitional period ahead, when Nursultan Nazarbaev will have to transfer power with the least possible historical-political losses to himself.
This means that pressure on him from closed ones this year will clearly be stronger, then before. At least, because in anticipation for hour zero, Kazakh clans are trying to take key positions in government apparatus, especially those that allow them to formally bid for the post of the president of the country, after the departure of the leader of nation.
Among officials that could supposedly lose their seats in the next few months, not only chairman of the Majilis of parliament Nigmatulin, about whose problems we already wrote (see here ) could be named, but also his colleague, speaker of the senate Kasymjomart Tokaev. Also can’t be excluded the possibility of prime-minister’s resignation – Bahytjan Sagintaev could easily be replaced by A. Mamin.As for the members of the government – renewal of the cabinet in the fall is almost inevitable. Among candidates for kicking out, first-hand sources name Dauren Abaev – minister of information and communications, and minister of investments and development of RK Kasimbek. Switch of akims is also possible.