One of the main problems facing Akorda today, is its inability (or fear) to look truth in the eyes. To prove this we will analyze official document – press release of the government dedicated to forecast and priorities of socio-economic development of Kazakhstan before 2022.
In order to not through words around we will quote the aforementioned press-release. We note to the readers that the highlights made by us are to accentuate your attention.
The press release starts by underlining goals and tasks.
Minister of National Economy Timur Suleimenov reported that the documents was developed to implement the goals and objectives defined in the Kazakhstan-2050 Strategy, the concept of joining the group of 30 most developed countries, the five institutional reforms and the Third Modernization of Kazakhstan.
The following paragraphs of this official governmental document “prove” that economic situation in Kazakhstan is getting better, moreover, there is a big possibility that this improvement will last.
Thus, since the beginning of the year, an improvement in economic activity is seen in Kazakhstan, The GDP growth for 7 month is 4.0%. By the end of the year, the economy expected to grow at the level of 3.4%. In addition, according to the forecasts of the IMF in 2017-2018, sustained global economic growth of 3.5-3.6% is expected in the fact of accelerated activity in countries with advanced economy.
Real GDP growth is projected at 3.1% in 2018, with a further increase to 4.2% in 2022. The average annual growth rate of GDP for the forthcoming period will be 3.7%. Nominal GDP will grow from 55.9 tril. tenge next year to 75.9 tril. tenge in 2022. GDP per capita will be $9000 in 2018, with an increase to $11700 in 2022.
Due to the introduction of SPIID projects, the continuation of the state programs for the AIC development, Nurly Zhol and Nurly Zher, and the implementation of the project management for the implementation of the Third Modernization, higher growth rates in the manufacturing industry are expected at 4.2%. In agriculture -5.7%, in the concstruction industry – 4.0%, transport- 5.1% and trade -3.5%.
The National Bank retained the target corridor of annual inflation in the range of 5-7% in 2018, 4-6% in 2019, followed by a decrease to 3-4% in 2020-2022. The unemployment rate will decrease from 4.9% in 2018 to 4.7% in 2022.
However, official optimism of Kazakh government is nothing more than a game of words and numbers.
This is witnessed by the fact that GDP per capita will only make up 9 thousand USD with an increase of 11.7 thousand in 2022. At the same time, based on data of Committee on statistics of the Ministry of national economy of Kazakhstan, GDP by the means of production per capita in 2011 made up just 11.6 thousand USD, The next year in 2012 this indicator grew to 12.4 thousand and in 2013 to 13.9 thousand. After that the fall has started: in 2014 – down to 12.8 thousand, in 2015 to 10.5 and in 2016 to 7.7 ths. Thus, Kazakh government in 2018-2022 is planning to only return to the marks of 2011. And the result of government efforts, and only if they are successful, will be not growing of production, but simply its recovery and most likely partial one. Thus, Akorda plans on entering the top 30 of most developed countries of the world and other loud ideas is just a pseudo-science fiction or in other words, propaganda slogans, aimed at unprepared, uninterested and unmotivated listeners.