On Nazarbayevs’ UAE Money

Do you remember the joint declaration of the Kazakh government and the government of the UAE a part of which was to sell two water power plants in the East Kazakhstan region (the Shulbinskaya and Ust-Kamenogorskaya power plants) to some well-concealed investors? Well, it has been revoked.

On January, 10, 2022, the acting Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alikhan Smailov (at that time, he was not yet officially made the head of the government) signed a decree on revoking the graft legislature titled “On Ratification of the Joint Declaration of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Government of the United Arab Emirates on Establishing a Longterm Strategic Partnership to Implement Projects in the Priority Sectors” from the Mazhilis of the Kazakh Parliament.

Unfortunately, the announcement published on the official website of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan contains no word on why the dissolved Cabinet suddenly got concerned about this issue and at such an inopportune time, too – when the conflict between the people and the authorities was still going on and the question of who was to become a part of the new government was to be answered on the next day.

We at KZ.expert believe the reason for such hastiness and decisiveness on the part of the acting Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov and his allies was simple – they had received the order from the First President of the RK.

As to why Nursultan Nazarbayev decided that six plus billion dollars of the so called UAE investments in Kazakhstan had stopped being useful for the country is evident. After the January “explosion” of the protest sentiments, he seems to have changed his mind in regard to getting his money back to his homeland.

We have commented on this Library- and Akorda-sensitive topic on numerous occasions -

 “On Tokayev’s Visit to the UAE”  

“A Trillion Tenge Investor”  

What Is behind Mamin’s Visit to the UAE“

“On Nazarbayev’s Energy Investments”

For example, here is how we confirm our idea in the article titled “What Is behind Mamin’n Visit to the UAE” (quoting) -

“In our opinion, the only explanation for the modesty of Akorda, the Library and the government lies in the following: they do not want to attract the public attention to these particular investments. Because these investments are likely to come from the funds of the First President’s clan and of his allies; the funds that had been moved from the country to the offshore structures and, up until recently, kept in the UAE banks and foundations”.

“Our conjecture can be indirectly confirmed by the fact that, exactly one year ago, Askar Mamin also visited the UAE. Back then we commented on his visit in our publication “On Tokayev’s Visit to the UAE”.

You will recall that the matter also revolved around  the UAE investments in 21 Kazakh projects. The amount of the investments constituted US$6.1 bln. And back then there was no noise in the press, either.

It is highly likely that, both now and then, it was the same money. But, if a year ago, they only reached the first agreement on how and where it is going to be invested, then now they have signed specific deals on the investments.

These deals are probably so watertight from the legal standpoint that, if the related authorities from the U.S. or the European Union impose personal sanctions against Nursultan Nazarbayev and the members of his clan, no one will be able to touch them and arrest the accounts, the securities, the investments and the projects”.

There is no doubt that it was the January “explosion” of the protest sentiments in Kazakhstan that was the underlying reason for recalling the legislature on the ratification of the joint Kazakh/UAE declaration.

To prove it, let us give you one indisputable fact: very little time has passed between introducing the legislature to the Mazhilis of the Kazakh Parliament and recalling it. On December 23, 2021, the Minister of National Economy presented the said legislature to the Mazhilis and, on January 10, 2022, the government called it away.

We are not going to predict how the further events will unfold. For instance, whether this project will be nipped in the bud or only “frozen”?

On one hand, given the current developments, keeping the six plus billion dollars in the UAE may turn out to be safer for Nazarbayev and his clan than to invest it in the national economy thus risking this money being nationalised at some point.

On the other hand, there is no guarantee that, following so many instances of murder, persecution and violence against Kazakh citizens, the U.S. administration will not impose sanctions both against Kazakhstan and the people ruing it now.

Therefore, currently, the Elbasy and his financial advisors have found themselves in a difficult situation: the future events can hardly be predicted while withdrawing billions of dollars in cash and hiding them in glass jars is completely impossible.

In conclusion, we would like to disappoint those who believe that, by assuming the responsibility for the country and declaring war against the so-called terrorists, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has finally become the true leader of the state independent from his predecessor. The fact that he did not stop Alikhan Smailov and the latter did what he did can only mean one thing – both are still controlled by Nursultan Nazarbayev.


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