Nazarbayev behind Tokayev’s Back?

On January 8, 2022, we finally learned where the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the “Leader of the Nation” is located. Turns out, he is not in China, the Emirates, or in an intensive care in Moscow as some Russian telegram-channels have written.

As Press-secretary to Nursultan Nazarbayev Aydos Ukibay informs (quoting) -

“The Elbasy is in the capital of Kazakhstan, the Nur-Sultan city. Please, do not spread the deliberately false and speculative information. The Elbasy is conducting a number of advisory meetings and is direct contact with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Also, Nursultan Nazarbayev has had several telephone conversations with the heads of the friendly powers.

The Elbasy urges everyone to line up behind the President of Kazakhstan in order to overcome the current challenges and to ensure the unity of our country”.  

We at believe that Nursultan Nazarbayev’s comeback from the ten-day oblivion (that began on December 28, 2021), albeit so far only to the information space of the country, testifies that the situation is “normalising”. Otherwise, the Elbasy , following his old and well-tried habit of waiting for the events to progress and jumping on the political front-stage only when the unknown fades and the risks are reduced, would have been lying low in one of his super-protected residences.

Of course, there is likelihood that Nursultan Nazarbayev -

a) is already dead while his press-secretary is pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes in order not to aggravate the internal political situation.

Hypothetically, this can be possible but, in our opinion, unlikely. For, it would be non-feasible to keep such shocking information secret, not for long at least – too many people are serving and protecting the former President.

b) is now in one of the family residences abroad, waiting for the time he can come back to the country.

This, in our opinion, is more likely, however, we believe that the Elbasy may have sent away only his family and his most valuable possessions that can be carried on his personal plane. But it looks like the Elbasy himself is in Kazakhstan (if he did leave, he has already come back).

Moreover, we at believe he is still playing a very important – key – role in the internal political process.

To prove it, let us recall the situation with the Security Council leadership replacement.

In order for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to concentrate the state power in his hands in a matter of literally a day, he had to become the Chairman of the Kazakh Security Council. However, he could not have assumed this post without the approval of his predecessor. Without such approval, the other members of the Security Council and the top-officials of the law-enforcement agencies would have simply ignored him.  

Therefore, it is likely that Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s decision himself. This decision has probably been or will be fortified by the Elbasy’s statement that he is giving up the lifelong position of the Chairman of the Security Council, permanently or for a time.

Without Nursultan Nazarbayev’s personal involvement, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (famous among the ruling elite for his über-cautiousness) was unlikely to dismiss Chief of the NSC Karim Masimov and his First Deputy Samat Abish.

In our opinion, their dismissal and the following arrest of Karim Masimov by his former NSC colleagues are but a part of an internal political hoax. (Different rumours are circulating regarding the fate of the Elbasy’s nephew, among other things, there was information on his arrest, later refuted).

And one of the main goals of his hoax is to lift the responsibility for what happened from the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the “Leader of the Nation”.

This responsibility could be placed on anyone at all including the acting President, the former Chief of the NSC, another Nursultan Nazarbayev’s nephew Kayrat Satybaldy (there are talks about him being arrested in the UAE), the foreign secret service, Mukhtar Ablyazov, independent media and protesting Kazakh citizens whom now the authorities call “terrorists”.

So, let us not delude and mislead ourselves.


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