Samat Abish, the nephew of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Deputy Chief of the country’s main secret service, is no longer on the list of the Elbasy’s potential successors as our insiders have informed us. Now Dariga Nazarbayeva’s chances to become the third President of the country may grow. Albeit under certain conditions.
Dariga obtaining a deputy seat based on the Nur Otan party list has become one of the most debated topics in the Kazakhs media space and on social networks.
You will recall that, as soon as the name of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter had appeared on the Nur Otan parliamentary electoral list, she was immediately suspected of intending to become the head of the Mazhilis of the Kazakh Parliament.
However, this didn’t happen. Moreover, Dariga Nazarbayeva was not even appointed a leader of any kind of committee. Thus, our forecast of November 30, 2020, made in the article «Three Reasons for Dariga’s Return to Politics» has come true:
«For this very reason, we are inclined to believe that the inclusion of Dariga Nazarbayeva into the ruling party’s list for the upcoming parliamentary elections is but a usual precaution on her own part, on the part of her family and, most importantly, on the part of her father. With that, each of them has probably voted in favour of this decision based on their own reasons.
Nursultan Nazarbayev needs to somehow support the eldest daughter who, for the past several years, has been the talk of the town, and not just in Kazakhstan but abroad as well. However, his support is more of the political than the familial nature. Also, it has to be done in the way that will allow Dariga to release her activity doing as little damage to her own image and to the image of the «reigning» family as possible.
In their turn, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s other relatives and allies that have participated in the making of such a sensitive decision may have been driven by some other motives.
The thing is that the seat that Mrs. Nazarbayeva is likely to get is to become a leash that will restrain her from the completely atrocious (in the eyes of the society) actions. And not only in the official sphere; in her private life as well. For it is no secret that, in Akorda, Dariga’s fun activities conducted with her old girlfriends and far away from prying eyes have become legendary. And if this information somehow sees the light of day, it may become that very culm that broke the camel’s back.
As for Dariga Nazarbayeva herself, for her, a seat in the Parliament is not just an opportunity to remind the society of herself, it is a life vest to be used in the event if, after the Elbasy’s passing, the situation develops not to her advantage. Yes, the deputy status will not save her from a criminal persecution but it will give her time necessary to try and solve her problems. And, in case she doesn’t manage to do so, she will have an opportunity to leave the country and find a refuge somewhere in the «Wild West».
We at KZ.expert have no doubt that Dariga Nazarbayeva will become one of the most quoted and discussed «people’s representatives» within the newly elected Mazhilis. And not just because she’s got a proactive attitude and energy. The thing is that the Elbasy’s eldest daughter has a financial possibility to employ a big team of advisors, consultants, PR-experts and so on that help her on the constant basis and not just at the time of an election campaign. On the other hand, at this point, she is doomed to remain just a deputy and nothing more.
However, the situation may change dramatically if her father passes away or if the state of his health becomes so critical that the Nazarbayev clan realises the imminence of his death.
In these two situations, Dariga Nazarbayeva may get a chance to become the Speaker of the Mazhilis of the Kazakh Parliament and then — the third President of Kazakhstan (when Kossym-Jomart Tokayev suddenly realises how hard it is for him to perform the job of the head of the state).
In our opinion, this kind of scenario is quite feasible but it can only be realised if several factors come into play at the same time. One of such factors is the consolidation of Nursultan Nazarbayev clan after his death. If this consolidation (even a temporary and rocky one) doesn’t happen, we believe the Elbasy’s eldest daughter won’t have a chance to become her father’s true successor.
Yes, she is very wealthy and well-known in the country, she is an important and an influential internal political player, but she does not have her own powerful enough clan whose members are occupy high-rank governmental jobs and therefore can assist her in getting the top position in the country.
Let us clarify, we do have doubts that Nursultan Nazarbayev clan will preserve its relative integrity after its leader’s passing. Unfortunately, this topic is practically never raised by the Kazakh media-resources. And even though it is being actively discussed on social networks, mostly, this subject is debated on an emotional but not on the factual level.
Nonetheless, certain things do «leak out».
For instance, according to insiders KZ.expert, the Elbasy’s nephew Samar Abish who is currently serving as the First Deputy Chief of the NSC (and, apart from performing his regular job, is «keeping an eye» on his boss Karin Masimov) is no longer being considered as his uncle’s potential successor. Even though, not so long ago, he was on the list of the possible Nazarbayev’s «heirs». (Four years ago, we wrote about it in this article).
The reason lies not only in Samar Abish’s professional failures but also in his religious views and tight connections with his elder brother Kayrat Satybaldy (on the photo below) who once also served as the Deputy Chief the the National Security Committee.
The talk is that Mr. Satybaldy and Mr. Abish do not simply practice regular Islam but adhere to rather radical views that, in Kazakhstan, have unofficially been deemed dangerous for the internal political stability and the national security.
Previously, we have already touched upon this subject several times. However, three years ago, Samat Abish’s religious views and his tight connection with his elder brother did not impede on his repeating the take-off of Vladimir Putin’s career. Nowadays, it looks like he has stopped being the person Nursultan Nazarbayev and the latter’s influential relatives can rely upon.
For this reason, we believe that Dariga Nazarbayeva now has a chance to snatch away the wheel of the state governing. However, this is not at all a given since, as it may turn out, she’s got more enemies than friends even inside of her own clan.