On October 27, 2020, the official site of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan informed the public on Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Abu Dhabi meeting with Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Presidential Affairs of the United Arab Emirates Sheik Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan. So, what’s the game here?
«United Arab Emirates
In the course of the meeting, the parties have discussed the topical issues of the economic cooperation. The parties were pleased to remark on the agreements regarding implementing investment projects in the amount of more than US6 $ bln reached during Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Askar Mamin’s recent visit.
Apart from that, Elbasy Nursultan Nazarbayev and Sheik Mansour have talked about the prospects of the cooperation in the sphere of culture and tourism.
At the end of the meeting, the parties have exchanged their opinions on the topical issues of the regional agenda».
So, what’s remarkable about it, one might ask?
Let us start by saying that Nursultan Nazarbayev flew to quite a distant land to meet with someone who is but a deputy prime minister and the minister of presidential affairs! (Granted, Sheik Mansour is a member of the UAE ruling dynasty but still…). It was not the UEA President, Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyam, or his consanguine and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyam that met with the Elbasy.
Now. The participants of the meeting «were pleased to remark on the agreements regarding implementing investment projects in the amount of more than US6 $ bln reached during Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Askar Mamin’s recent visit». In other words, Nursultan Nazarbayev has given the credit for attracting such big foreign investments to the head of the government? Instead of boasting about such a huge economic achievement and taking credit for it himself (as he used to de in the past)?
As for «the prospects of the cooperation in the sphere of culture and tourism», considering the coronavirus pandemic and the decline of the level and quality of life of most Kazakhs, they seem rather unclear. And the smooth diplomatic phrase about the exchange of «opinions on the topical issues of the regional agenda» may serve as a cover for anything — from a heated discussion to a simple exchange of polite questions about the health and well-being of the parties present.
So, let us draw some conclusions: the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Leader of the Nation flew to the United Arab Emirates to meet with a member of the ruling dynasty but not with the number one or number two persons in the country. The question is why and what for. We do not have clear-cut answers but we can venture some guesses on the subject.
For instance, we quite allow for the possibility that Nursultan Nazarbayev has visited the UAE to undergo some medical procedures unavailable in Kazakhstan. Simply because, nowadays, it’s become harder to organise visits to Switzerland or other Western country due to the aggravation of the coronavirus pandemic.
However, there can be yet another explanation based on the previous events, in particular, the working visit of Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Askar Mamin to the UAE that took place on October 11-12 of the current year.
We have already expressed our doubts in regard to this visit and its success in our publication titled «On Tokayev’s Visit to the UAE». Now let us develop our hypotheses based on the new indirect data.
Now then, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Askar Mamin accompanied by Minister of National Economy Dalenov R., Minister of Justice Beketayev M., Akim of Nur-Sultan Kulginov A., Deputy Head of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms Madiyev Zh., Chairman of the Management Board of the Baiterek National Management Holding JSC Arifkhanov A. and others goes to the UAE on a working visit. Note that he meets with the person with whom Nursultan Nazarbayev is to meet later — Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Presidential Affairs of the UAE Sheik Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
And, if we are to believe the press-release of the Kazakh government, Mamin achieves a remarkable success:
«Following the results of the negotiations, the governments of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the UAE have signed a document on investment cooperation that intends to implement 21 projects amounting to 6.1 $ bln.
These projects are to create new industries with a high added value as well as high potential for the demand on both the local and the lucrative expert markets. The implementation of these projects will allow to create new jobs, introduce future-oriented technologies and practices in Kazakhstan».
As soon as October 13, 2020, Prime Minister Askar Mamin reports on the achieved success to President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kossym-Jomart Tokayev. Here is a quote.
«The Prime Minister has reported on the results of his October 11-12 working visit to Abu-Dhabi. In the course of the said visit, the agreements reached during Kossym-Jomart Tokayev’s official visit to the UAE in January of the current year have been translated into action. For instance, the governments of the two countries have signed the Memorandum on investment cooperation that intends to implement 21 projects amounting to 6.1 $ bln. The document mentions creating new industries with a high added value and profitability as well as high potential for the demand on both the local and the lucrative export markets».
But then, there is no loud noise in the press, no banging the propaganda drums.
Still, no later than October 17, 2020, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the «Leader of the Nation» has a phone conversation with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyam. Here is a quote from the Library’s press-release (text in bold by KZ.expert).
«In the course of the conversation, the Elbasy and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi were pleased to remark on the speedy development of the traditionally friendly relationships between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates.
In this context, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyam remarked on the results of the recent working visit of Prime Minister Askar Mamin to Abu Dhabi as part of which they have signed an intergovernmental document on implementing new investment projects in our country in such spheres as manufacturing, agriculture, power industry, petrochemical industry and pharmaceuticals.
The parties have also touched upon the subject of the contemporary revival of Turkestan that is currently undergoing a large-scale city and tourism infrastructure development.
At the end of the conversation, the Elbasy and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi have expressed the mutual assurance of the further deepening and widening of the cooperation between the two friendly nations».
Nonetheless, when Nursultan Nazarbayev comes to the UEA on October 27, 2020, he is met not by President Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan or his consanguine and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyam but by Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Presidential Affairs Sheik Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan (!).
We could say that the Elbasy has lost the respect of the United Arab Emirates but the matter probably lies elsewhere — in some sort of conflict between Nursultan Nazarbayev and the UAE ruling dynasty. As we suspect, this conflict has to do with money. Hence all the aforementioned oddities.
Photo taken at the grand opening ceremony of the Special Olympics World Games that took place on March 14-21, 2019 at the Zayed Sports City stadium in Abu Dhabi.
Let us clarify from the very start — everything written below is but a KZ.expert hypothesis based on the information provided by our insiders and on the knowledge of certain secrets from the past. So, our hypothesis is that a part of Nursultan Nazarbayev personal fortune was, some time ago, moved to the UAE and hidden there in private and governmental funds controlled by the members of the Al Nahyam family. Now the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan has decided (his reasons for making this decision is a topic for a different research) to move these billions back to Kazakhstan (on paper, it will look like the UAE investments). But something’s gone wrong.
We do not know yet what’s gone wrong and how. Therefore, at this point, we are only going to present you this hypothesis…