Since the parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan are just around the corner, we have decided to analyse the electoral slogans and the programs of the three civil associations represented in the Parliament’s Mazhilis today – Nur Otan, the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan and the Ak Zhol Democratic Party.
In the article Akorda and the Library Preparing for Elections, we come to a conclusion that the Kazakh parliamentary elections will be held as scheduled and only the political parties that are registered today will participate in them.
Here is a quote from the article.
“Since planned parliamentary elections must be scheduled five months prior to “the end of the term limit of the Mazhilis deputies”, it means that the decision of President Kossym-Jomart Tokayev will be announced no later than October 20, 2020. In other words, in less than five months from now. Given this kind of time crunch, Akorda and the Library have absolutely no reason to take risks, therefore, early elections are unlikely to happen. Having said that, we would like to point out that, in Kazakhstan, anything is possible especially under the pressure of an acute political need.
Therefore, we can forecast, with some confidence, that:
- the parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan will take place within the law-stipulated time limit, in other words, they won’t happened ahead of schedule;
- the decision of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan on scheduling the next Mazhilis elections will be announced no later than October 20, 2020;
- only currently registered political parties will participate in the elections”.
Due to the fact that, willingly or not, the Kazakh citizens will have to participate in the election campaign rather soon, it will be interesting to see which slogans and programs the three civil associations represented in the Mazhilis today (Nur Otan, the CPPK, DPK Ak Zhol) are going to employ in their election campaigns.
As far as Ak Zhol is concerned, it’s all already clear: it has yoked these three horses in its ideological plow – “opposition”, “genocide of the Kazakhs” and “Alashorda”. With the help of this agenda, it is mainly trying to attract the Kazakh-speaking Kazakhs that are nationalistically minded, dissatisfied with the ruling authorities one way or another and wish to assert themselves against their fellow citizens.
Since this practically describes the majority of the Kazakh citizens, Ak Zhol is pretty much guaranteed to make it to the Parliament. The question is with what result.
It looks like Azat Peruashev and the elite clans standing behind him are hoping to increase the size of the faction and, therefore, become a force that’s going to be much more influential in the post-Nazarbayev Kazakhstan. Hence the noticeable activities of Ak Zhol in the Parliament and the country’s information space which signifies that everything there is OK, money-wise.
As for the Communists, we believe they are at a crossroads now. On one hand, they may continue posing as the representatives and defenders of the people’s interests. The party’s latest press-release entitled “You Reap What Your Sow” confirms it. On the other hand, since the party’s performance as the people’s defender is extremely poor, certain changes are unavoidable.
The CPPK’s main problem lies in the fact that it cannot rely on the Marxist-Leninist theory and use the Soviet past for their tactical purposes – all this is dangerous for Akorda, especially today, when the level and the quality of life of the Kazakhs has drastically decreased and the authorities have to preserve the internal political stability by any means possible. For, in the first instance, the party will have to call for a social revolution to the destruction of the authoritarian political system (if not the proletarian dictatorship) and, in the second instance, to do practically the same albeit without emotion and reminiscences.
Given all this, the Communists have practically no trump cards that they could use in the upcoming election campaign. Unless they claims to be “oppositional” like Ak Zhol. In light of this, we are looking forward to learning what decisions Akorda and the Library are going to make regarding the party. For if they decide that the Mazhilis needs a new political force and, at the same time, will not dare to decrease the number of the mandates allocated for Nur Otan, the Communists will be the first candidates for the exit.
Theoretically, there is a chance that Akorda and the Library will agree to decrease the number of the ruling party deputies. In this case, the Lower Chamber may get four political parties of which say two will become “oppositional” and the other two – “pro-government”. However, for this to happen, a significant effort has to be made including the one to revive one of the non-parliament parties which, in our opinion, is highly unlikely. Especially considering the financial problems, the absence of the key political figures and, most importantly, the fears that are dominating the top of the ruling elite today.
As for Nur Otan, the ruling party seems to be holding no surprises – it is preparing for the upcoming parliamentary elections in its usual clothings and under the old slogans. Still, it is this party that may spring the greatest surprise on the voters (of course, for that to happen, the “Leader of the Nation” has to depart from life and the political scene). If this happens, Nur Otan will inevitably take the road traveled by the CPSU of the Gorbachev era where, on one hand, the party will start experiencing the fights between clans, groups and figures of influence but, on the other, thanks to this, it will become more. interesting to the fellow citizens at least in some way.