In our last article devoted to the unexpected termination of Dariga Nazarbayeva’s deputy’s authorities and, consequently, her unavoidable dismissal form the post of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament, we have posed four questions an answer to which is now being searched for by everyone who is interested in politics.
Here they are:
1. Who exactly made the decision on dismissing Ms. Nazarbayeva — her father, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, or his successor at the presidential post Kossym-Jomart Tokayev?
2. What was it that had caused the dismissal?
3. Who will replace the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter at the post of the Head of the Senate of the Kazakh Parliament thus taking up the third official position in the state hierarchy?
4. What threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan?
We could only answer the first question with certainty: the decision to dismiss Nazarbayeva from the third official position in the state hierarchy could only have been made by her father, the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. No other including the acting Head of the State Kossym-Jomart Tokayev could have done that.
But then, we enter into the realm of a complete uncertainty. Moreover, in our opinion, we will never learn the real answer to the third question, even when some time passes and what is happening now becomes history. Simply because the human soul, especially when we are talking about such an experienced and cynical politician as the Leader of the Nation, is a total obscurity.
Therefore, we as well as the rest of those interested in Kazakhstan’s domestic policy will have to go over different versions of how to answer this question.
In our opinion, there can be three of these versions. Let us randomly call them «positive», «negative» and «neutral».
With that, the answer to the second question (what was the cause of Dariga Nazarbayeva’s dismissal) predetermines the answer to the fourth question (what threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan).
We have no doubts that, from the point of view of her father, there have been plenty of reasons to dismiss the Leader of the Nation’s eldest daughter from the high elective position starting with the fact that she is a woman (and the one who’s got many «dark spots» in her biography) and ending with her hyperactivity as the Speaker of the Senate, the scandals with the London real estate and the behaviour of her second son Aisultan.
But these are the causes but not the reasons. Since several people had participated in the making of this decision, each of these persons had their own set of pros and cons; the final decision, however, had been made by the Nursultan Nazarbayev. And given that he had to do it simultaneously as a private man, a father, and a person in the position of the «Leader of the Nation», it must have been difficult. And, to a large extent, subjective.
Now then, the «positive» version of the answer to the second question means that the Leader of the Nation has decided to save his eldest daughter (among other things, from her own self). The «negative» version means that he has written her off as he had previously done with his eldest son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev and then with his second grandson Aisultan Nazarbayev. The «neutral» version is that he has written off Dariga Nazarbayeva as a politician but not as his relative.
Our intuition tells us that, when making the decision on dismissing Nazarbayeva from the position of the Speaker of the Senate, Nursultan Nazarbayev was, first, led by his personal interests, second, by the position of those members of his immediate circle whose opinion he cannot disregard, and, finally, by the state interests and in a rather contorted viewpoint at that. He did take into consideration the public opinion, of course, but only to the extent was presented to him by his immediate circle and by the secret service reports.
Breaking the tension within the ruling elite and the top of the state apparatus caused by the abnormal activities of Dariga Nazarbayeva had been and still is in the interest of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the «Leader of the Nation». He is also keen of reducing the risks of the negative developments of the scandals involving her uber-expensive real estate in London and her son’s behaviour.
Will the Leader of the Nation be able to solve these problems via his daughter’s dismissal? Undoubtedly so, albeit not immediately and not to the fullest.
However, if Dariga Nazarbayeva disappears from the political field and the information space for quite long a time, she will be, if not forgotten, then mentioned much rarely as it is now happening with Timur and Dinara Kulibayevs not to mention pensioners such as Nurtay Abykayev, Aslan Musin or Adilbek Dzhaksybekov.
The task of reducing the risks of the new scandals involving Nursultan Nazarbayev’s relatives has already been solved — it is unlikely that his grandson will be allowed to go abroad. But as for the problem with the London real estate, we believe it is going to exist for several years to come. Moreover, due to our deep knowledge of this case, we can predict with certainty that, if the British agencies will follow our recommendations, this scandal may surpass the American Kazakhgate in terms of its political damage. And not only because the times and the global attitude to such things have seriously changed but because the case itself is of a much more criminal nature.
As for the answer to the question what threats can this development bring to Dariga Nazarbayeva and her clan, we are going to devote a special article to it. But only after the process of her «deenthronement» will have ended and the first reaction of the First President’s eldest daughter and her circle to such an unexpected dismissal will have become clear.