On the Early Mazhilis Elections

According to the information provided by our sources, the Kazakh parliamentary elections are to happen as soon as this year. The range of the reasons they list is quite wide — from the fears that the impending passing of the First President will turn the future election campaign into a war between the elite groups to the quite understandable desire on the part of Akorda and the Library to stabilize the situation via the controlled stirring up of the political developments.

In view of this, several questions arise that need to be answered.

  1. When are the early parliamentary elections going to take place? 

The logics suggests that it will happen at the end of the year, say in October-November, when the agricultural year would be finished and Nur Otan with its «fellow travelers», the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan and the Ak Zhol Democratic Party of Kazakhstan would have mobilized their active core. Nonetheless, we do allow for the possibility that Akorda and the Library may choose to hold the elections earlier (albeit not earlier than the end of the spring). But this would mean that something is forcing them to do so, and that that something is a force quite serious. 

  1. Who will participate in the parliamentary elections?

 We can answer this question right now — the six registered political parties. Nur Otan is obviously going to «win», however, the Communist People’s Party and Ak Zhol will also make it to the Mazhilis. In other words, the existing setup will be preserved.

 The only big mystery is how many mandates will each of the «winners» get; will it be more or will it be less than they have now as well as what number of the ballots will be declared invalid. For if the verbal activity of the voters starts converting into actions, the number of such ballots may become record-setting.

  1. How will the early elections affect the internal political situation in Kazakhstan?

 Here we also have a cut and dry answer. We are certain that they will preserve the existing state of things.

 And it is very likely that both Akorda and the Library (with certain variations) are pursuing precisely this goal.

Why do we think so?

Because, based on the information provided by our insiders, an opposition against Kossym-Jomart Tokayev is continuing to grow insider the «super-presidential» vertical.

Interestingly, they say that this opposition is not directly tied to the key domestic political players (not to mention it is not a part of any clans or groups of influence). They say that the poorly though out populist policy pursued by the acting head of the state and his team cause a massive discontent among state officials. And the latter show their resentment more and more often comparing Tokayev with Mikhail Gorbachev.

As we have pointed out several times before, the Kazakh ruling elite is undergoing a rapidly growing animosity caused by a clear understanding that Nursultan Nazarbayev’s time is coming to an end and that the first stage of the supreme power transition in the country will soon be finished. With that, everyone understands perfectly that it will be followed by a second stage signified by the fight for the right to become the real successor of the First President. As part of this stage, a person or a group of people will be selected to take charge of the country. And only after several years of fighting a winner will be selected within this group.

In these circumstances, the question of which political parties will make it to the parliament, how many mandates they will receive and even what political slogans and ideas they will promote is secondary. What is much more important is the setup of the individual people occupying the key posts in the state apparatus. Particularly, we are talking about the members of the government, the governors of the regions and the cities of the regional subordination, the heads of the secret service agencies etc. And this is exactly what cannot be predicted.


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