The decision of the Semey District Court (East-Kazakhstan region) to satisfy the third motion on the early release of former head of Kazatomprom Mukhtar Dzhakishev has pleasantly surprised the country. But why was he freed after all?
In our opinion, in this instance, Akorda and the Library have been influenced by the three key factors.
First, there is the notability of Mukhtar Dzhakishev and his case as well as the fact that he has been supported by practically everyone except perhaps the Kazakh officials who are reflecting the position of their agencies. Personally, we cannot remember anyone who has been against this political prisoner’s release in the recent years.
Second, there is the tragic death of civil activist Dulat Agadil after his arrest by siloviks, Since the official version of the events is rather dubious and rejected by many, the authorities had to do something to diminish the intensity of emotions both inside the country and abroad.
Third, there is the rapid escalation of the intra-elite conflict as part of which several groups and figures of influence are not just openly insisting on replacing Kossym-Jomart Tokayev at the presidential post but have started to take aggressive actions in order to achieve this goal. Our insiders believe that these developments explain the overly tough means employed by the siloviks during the March 1 crackdowns.
The rapid escalation of the intra-elite conflict, in its turn, has been caused by Arorda and the Library’s serious concerns about Nursultan Nazarbayev’s impending passing.
This is why several persons from within the First President’s immediate circle. for instance, his aides Abay Bisembayev (simultaneously serving as the First Deputy Head of the Department of Presidential Affairs) and Aset Isekeshev (simultaneously serving as the Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan) have stepped up their game.
According to our insiders, today, these people have grown into the leaders of one of the most influential groups in Nursultan Nazarbayev’s immediate circle and, apart from that, are able to influence the siloviks (Isekeshev) and use the almost unlimited monetary resources placed under their management (Bisembayev). And it is they who are now trying to strike down Kossym-Jomart Tokayev as well as not to let Dariga Nazarbayeva take over the «steering wheel» of power.
Therefore, it is now that that the early release of Mukhtar Dzhakishev has become possible for the acting President Kossym-Jomart Tokayev needed, by any means possible, to reduce the level of the protest sentiment in the society while gaining at least some kind of support on its part; the support he needs in his fight with his political and elite ill-wishers.
As for the Library, it has agreed to the idea since it got seriously scared that the death of Dulat Agadil would serve as a unifying factor for all of those who, today, are speaking against the authorities or, at least, are unsympathetic towards them (basically, most people in the country). For this is more than hazardous for those who, on one hand, are hungry for power but, on the other, know full well that they may provoke massive protests as so often happens in the Central Asian region at the time of unrest.