The latest resonant events on the domestic political battlefield in Kazakhstan (from the election legislature amendments to the noticeable weakening of some very influential figures in Akorda) show that the power transition preparation process is coming to a certain definitive point that can be deemed as a “crouch start”.
However, in this newly created mechanism that is supposed to ensure the seamless transition of the presidential authorities from Nursultan Nazarbayev to his yet unknown successor, there exists a weak link. We are talking about the NSDP, the Nationwide Social Democratic Party.
Why is it a weak link? Because today this political party represents a structure that can relatively quickly become a “Trojan horse”.
The NSDP is the party that is not noticeable on the Kazakhstan’s political arena. It exists only pro forma. However, given the inevitable political crisis that will occur when the power transition in the country will start taking place, the NSDP may become a problem. Imagine that it will be joined by several active and influential people with money who then nominate a politically undesirable figure as the presidential candidate.
To stop this “Trojan horse” when the former “supra-presidential” system will be collapsing due to Nazarbayev’s resignation, when the state apparatus including the law-enforcement agencies will be demoralizing, when the state officials, concerned about the future, will refuse to execute unlawful orders will prove to be enormously challenging (if at all possible).
And then, Akorda (or rather those people who are now, with Nazarbayev’s blessing, are preparing the power transition mechanism in the country) will find themselves in the position when they will only be able to stop this politically undesirable candidate by employing the “siloviki” forces or even by some illegal ways. This would launch an immediate blow to Nazarbayev’s successor and turn the country into a pariah on the world political arena.
For this reason, the NSDP’s fate will, most likely, be unfortunate. If before, Akorda chose to keep it as proof that a political opposition of a democratic nature exists in the country, then now, it can no longer allow itself to do so.
We may speculate on what concrete occasion the NSDP will be terminated. On the other hand, it seems a senseless exercise since the authorities have a free hand in the matter. By the looks of it Akorda is currently working out a plan. Its realization perhaps will not start until the EXPO-2017 is over (no point to cast a damp over Nazarbayev’s foreign policy super-project). And since the termination of a political party requires the time to comply with the judicial procedures, we doubt the NSDP will be out of the picture this year.
Of course, there is a small chance that the party survives. However, it will be possible only on one condition – if some politically safe persons become the NSDP leaders. Most likely, Akorda is considering this scenario. There is, however, one unsolvable problem – the absence of the figures who, like Peruashev and Kosarev, will be able, on the one hand, to follow Akorda’s will and, on the other hand, to keep their party activists under control.