On Kenes Rakishev’s Promise

In the interview to Russian newspaper The Kommersant, BTA Bank’s owner Kenes Rakishev promised: «The official BTA reporting is soon to be released. You will see that we have more than 1 $bln of litigation-free assets on our balance. We also have claims to other persons in the amount of 3.5 $ bln. At the same time, BTA does not have financial obligations to third parties».

In the kz.expert publication of June 13, 2018, called «A Nice Gift to Kenes Rakishev», we expressed a doubt that this was possible since it was going against the common sense and the economic logic. In the article, we propose the two versions of the current developments. 

First version. The deal on the BTA Bank’s assets sale to the governmental Problem Loans Fund had not been completed since there exists the critical need to keep the assets on the bank’s balance sheet in order to continue working on the lawsuits, searching for external investors, and completing the projects.

Second version. BTA Bank only sold Kazkommertsbank’s problem assets in the amount of 2.6 trillion tenge to the Problem Loans Fund thus giving an expensive present to Kenes Rakishev.

In the meantime, according to the information on BTA Bank website, the annual shareholders meeting is to be held on July 2 in Almaty. The business of the meeting consists of four items the first of which is devoted to «the approval of the audited consolidated and separate non-consolidated annual BTA Bank financial reporting for the year 2017».

So, one can expect that, after the annual shareholders meeting, Kenes Rakishev’s promise given in the Kommersant interview, is to be fulfilled.

However, we believe that Akoorda is unlikely to risk taking such a step since it would be rather dangerous for the Government, the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and the majority shareholder.

The thing is that the deal on purchasing the assets from BTA Bank for 2639771 120000 tenge intended for the problem assets in exactly this amount to be transferred to the purchaser. For this reason, the Problem Loans Fund had been removed from the authority of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and placed under the governmental ownership. Therefore, if the Problem Loans Fund had only received from BTA Bank the assets that earlier belonged to Kazkom, then the state, de-jure and de-facto, had paid too much for them.

This fact will not remain secret for long, and then Akorda will have to hold liable the National Bank’s managers and the members of the Government who allowed for such a gigantic embezzlement of the state funds.

If the deal between the Problem Loans Fund and BTA had simply not been completed, it is the bank that will suffer the blow — the market will learn that its balance sheet consists of the passives in the amount of 4.5 $ bln and the assets in the amount of a little more than 1 $ bln. The likelihood of Mukhtar Ablyazov’s paying anything of his 3.5 $ bln debt is close to a zero. Moreover, the bank’s attempt to overestimate the market price of this debt given the market’s absolute awareness of that which is happening, is no less dangerous than avoiding the subject altogether.

Amid all this, ignoring the legal norms and refusing to publish any kind of reporting remains the only possible mode of behavior for Akorda, The National Bank, the Kazakhstan Government, and BTA Bank itself. And this is exactly what is going on now which is not hard to see upon visiting the websites of the Problem Loans Fund and BTA Bank.

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