Alnur Musayev’s Conspiracy Theory

Against the backdrop of the ongoing fight between Akorda and Mukhtar Ablyazov as well as the attempt to revive the opposition in the form of the Zhana Kazakhstan movement, the Facebook posts of the former NSC Chief and today’s emigrant Alnur Musayev intitled «The Fight for the Power. Kazakhstan» have remained practically unnoticed.  

Meanwhile, these posts are worthy of our attention. And not only because their author is someone who was a relatively informed person in the past who is now forced to vegetate abroad, in Vienna. The matter is that Musayev has also revealed some sensational (for the common person) information:

  • first, on the deadly threat that is hanging over «yet another member of the Nazarbayev family who is now living in isolation in a foreign state»;
  • second, on several totally secret agencies that have been ensuring the personal safety of Nursultan Nazarbayev and trailing the members of his circle in order to prevent coup d’etats and assassinations;
  • third, on the idea that the Leader of the Nation is in fact nothing but a pawn in the game of «the main puppeteer», his co-father-in-law Askar Kulibayev, the father of Head of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs Atameken billionaire Timur Kulibayev. 

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The question whether or not one can believe Musayev’s words remains open. If for no other reason than because the documents cited by the author are inaccessible. However, since Musayev is a professional and, due to his secret service expertise, can be categorized as a person who would not reveal any information purposelessly, the question arises — why has he done so?

All the more so, since, for the people who know the newest Kazakhstan history firsthand and actively participate in it, turning Askar Kulibayev into the «main puppeteer» of Kazakhstan and, thus, the de-facto disranking Nursultan Nazarbayev as the Leader of the Nation, is not even a disinformation attempt but something closely resembling a provocation.

One way or another, Musayev’s story is original and multi-leveled. Most importantly, however, it also strikes a blow at the current key players in Akorda. For example, at the NSC Chief Karim Masimov whom his predecessor calls not just the Kulibayevs’ appointee but their trusted person in the matter of controlling the country’s elite.

Here are some key citations from the five Facebook posts of Alnur Musayev written from April 18 to May 25, 2018 (spelling and punctuation taken from original document — kz.expert).

«A king is the creation of his retinue. Kazakhstan is no exception — most decisions made by the President are formed by his people.

Askar Altynbekovich Kulibayev is the main shadowy Aqsaqal of our country. According to the secret service data and the materials of the President’s Security Department, it is he who stands behind all the under-the-carpet fighting moves from the first years of the independence to the present day. Unofficially, Prime Ministers, Heads of the Presidential Administration, Presidential Affairs Managers, the regional governors, judges, heads of law-enforcement agencies had surrendered themselves to his wishes. 

As a true head of the mafia, he never acts in a direct way. Only through his consiglieri who help him to channel the political processes, the personnel matters, does he control all the mentioned groups of influence».

«When Akedzhan Kazhegeldin was the Prime Minister, the main Aqsaqal Kulibayev, feeling threatened that all the money inflows are sliding by Timur, that the mining industry and oil industry enterprises are being privatized by «the wrong people», was actively facilitating the replacement of this Prime Minister for a more loyal figure. At the end of 1997, the oilman Nurlan Balgimbayev became the Prime Minister while Timur took over his position in Kazakhoil.

Kulibayev’s mafia talents were revealed in a particularly colorful manner in the compromising of Rakhat Aliyev whom he considered his son Timur’s biggest competitor. Thus, Aliyev was eliminated from politics. In 2001, Kulibayev united all the Kazakhstan elite groups in the fight against Rakhat and Dariga. With his authority and «kind word», he supported the creation of a democratic movement whose bosses First Vice Prime Minister Uraz Dzhandosov and Regional Governor Galumzhan Zhakiyanov believed that their attempts to democratize the country rested not only on the President’s approval but on the highest informal authority of the main Aqsaqal as well».

«Askar Kulibayev is completely satisfied with Kazakhstan’s current political system of the oligarchy capitalism. Moreover, he made sure that this kind of the thief’s power was established in the country. He is patiently waiting for the time to come to make his son Timur the Kazakhstan President. He ain’t in no rush».

Considering his advanced age, Askar Altynbekovich, remaining the Head of the clan and the main Aqsaqal, has retired from the operative control of the country’s elites. All the operative powers, with Askar Kulibayev’s blessing, have been given to Karim Masimov who is a loyal servant to both Timur Kulibayev and Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Here we must point out that the role of Askar Kulibayev’s consiglieri had earlier been successfully performed by Nurtay Abykayev aka «the Grey Cardinal». Everyone believed that he was the cardinal of the President. In reality, he was (apart from the other high standings) Nazarbayev’s long-time friend and, at the same time, the Kulibayev clan’s Grey Cardinal.

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As it has been said, Nursultan Nazarbayev is not prepping any successor and does not even think about any kind of power transfer. In these conditions, the Kulibayev clan has been focusing on eliminating the other clans, on submitting them. Thus, the economic potential of the clan is growing. Today, it owns all the oil and gas industries, the banking system, the communication system, the railway transport.

Thus, when Nursultan Nazarbayev leaves for another world, all the elite and all the economy of the country will be under the control of the Kulibayev clan.

With that, it is possible that Timur Kulibayev will not necessarily become the leader of the country. There could be options, but one thing is indisputable — this person will be under the Kulibayevs’ direct control. And the Kulibayevs have a variety of choices among the people loyal to the clan. Starting from Tokayev and Masimov and ending with Shukeyev and Samat Abishev. Today, no other clan remains that can fight with the Kulibayevs for the power. Even come influential oppositionists, fighting Nazarbayev, support Timur Kulibayev. As for Dariga Nazarbayeva, her family has been infiltrated by a «Trojan horse», gas industry magnate Kayrat Boranbayev and some other persons who are successfully performing the task of her neutralization.

Nursultan Nazarbayev has always been effective in his use of the divide et impera principle always «keeping different eggs in different baskets» so to speak. He has masterfully kept the balance between the clans and the elites. Today, however, we can say with certainty that, in this field, Askar Kulibayev has «outgamed» Nursultan Nazarbayev. There is no alternative to the Kulibayev clan in the future power system of Kazakhstan». 

Thus, Alnur Musayev had done everything to make his Facebook posts a sensation in the Kazakhstan media space. He began with «sounding the bells» saying that yet another member of the Nazarbayev family was facing a deadly threat, then, he presented a twist announcing that there was the «main puppeteer» behind Nazarbayev who controled the latter, and finished with «revealing» the identity of his person at the same time presenting a most fantastical version of the country’s newest history and of the building of the Kazakhstan authoritative political regime.

Generally speaking, it is not surprising that both the state agencies and the internet-community did not have a strong reaction to these posts. Which does not mean, however, that Alnur Musayev failed in his undertaking.

It is quite possible that his main task was to draw the attention of someone in Kazakhstan, and the chosen topic, the style and the content of Musayev’s posts guaranteed that this someone would undoubtedly hear him. The question is who this someone is.

Since only one person from the President’s close circle was mentioned in a relatively unbiased manner — President Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter Dariga — one may assume she was the addressee of Alnur Musayev’s secret massage.

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But what does she think of that and will she react to that? It still remains to be seen.

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