Background of Atambaev’s shakedowns

Kazakh-Kyrgyz conflict which started with offensive remarks by Atambaev addressed to Akorda and personally toward leader of the nation Nazarbaev turned out to be surprisingly long-lasting and serious in its consequences. In two months inter-governmental relations have exacerbated almost to the limit, and tens of thousands of people have become victims of worsening of customs and border regime from the Kazakhstani side.

It isn’t suprising that many have set about explaining and figuring out why and what for Atambaev suddenly decided to publicly critique his older Kazakh colleague, and later didn’t take a step back, and moreover continued on. Among those involved are even some high ranking Kazakh officials. Fore example, speaker of the Senate of the parliament of RK Kasim Jomart Tokaev announced that the reason for foreign-political upheaval of now former president of Kyrgiz Republic was psychological breakdown and excessive use of alcohol.

Based on our estimates in this concrete case, Atambaev was solving a very important domestic policy goal on transferring the presidential seat and authority to his man. And even with all the current lack of respect from Kazakh public, it is not right to call him a political fool or short-sighted official. On other words, ex-head of Kyrgyz Republic counted on something when opening this Pandora’s box. The  question is what?

Based on insider information, competent Kazakh government structures found an answer to this question. Thus if we are to believe our sources, an analytical note of one competent government structure has come to the attention of the administration of the president of RK, in it Russia, Kremlin and Putin personally are blamed for rise in hostility in inter-governmental relations between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. This is the theory of political analysts: Kremlin thought that Nazarbaev has announced the transfer from Cyrillic to Latin alphabet, in order to start distancing from Russian media space and thus Russia itself. Thus come all the ensuing negative consequences not only of the linguistic, but also of the socio-political, socio-economic, military and logistical character.

In the opinion of the authors of the document Putin allegedly decided not to react on what was happening publicly, due to difficulty of current foreign-policy situation of Russia and necessity of his participation in the upcoming elections, and made his move through Kyrgyzstan and Atambaev.

We will note that this version looks truthful and moreover a simple checking of dates confirms it.

Apr. 12 2017 president Nazarbaev has published an article in the newspaper Egemen Kazakhstan titled Bolshakka bagdar: rukhani jangyru in which he announced the transfer of Kazakh language to Latins cript and told the government to prepare the schedule of this transfer.

Jun 23 2017 at the V Global Kurultay of Kazakhs in Astana leader of the nation confirmed that the transfer of Kazakh language to Latin alphabet is a done deal and announced his belief that this move will only further unite Kazakh people.

Oct 7 2017 president of Kyrgyz Republic Atambaev publicly accused Kazakh authorities in meddling into domestic affairs of his country and in supporting one of the opposition presidential candidates.

Oct 13 2017 Atambaev has talked of Kazakh authorities in an even more severe way, by which point the latter have already started an informal pressure on the neighboring country through toughening of customs and border control.

Oct 18 2017 former president of Kyrgyzstan has announced that toughening of control at the border had at as its goal to cut out the republic from Russia, after which he accused Nazarbaev’s entourage in what’s happening but defended the president himself.

Oct 27  2017 president of Kazakh Republic signed an order to transfer Kazakh language from Cyrillic to Latin graphic, confirmed the new alphabet and told the government to form a corresponding commission, as well as to secure gradual transfer of alphabet of Kazakh language to latin before 2025.

Oct 27 2017 at the ceremony of giving out of credential letters by ambassadors of 12 countries Atambaev announced that he put to much faith into EAEU, however said that: “despite everything now and always brotherly Russia, remains a strategic partner and trustworthy ally.

Nov 15 2017 Kyrgyz head of state once again critiqued the situation at the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border and passivity of EAEU, and also critiqued Kazakh leader personally: “If everything depends not on agreements but on the whims of certain presidents, will the EAEU be able to become a civilized bloc?”

Nov 17 2017 Atambaev has met with president Putin in Saint Petersburg, while the latter has noted that “he wishes that the level of relations that was built between Kyrgyzstan and Russia would be preserved forever, for ages”.

Nov 20 2017 departing head of Kyrgyzstan has once again publicly characterized situation at the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border as blockade, and Kazakhstan’s positioning of itself as a “civil state” as nuisance. Moreover, he mentioned some official from the CNS of Rk who allegedly gave out money during parliamentary elections, supposedly to Kyrgyz opposition candidates, for which he was later deprived of a right to come into the republic.

And at the end of this exchange with the media, Atambaev has switched to slang, having answered to speaker of the RK parliament not only rude but in vulgar way. Atambaev has compared Kasymjoomart Tokaev with the officer’s servant from the fourth part of “Good soldier Svejk”: “The superior tell his servant – chairman of the senate, prime minister, or what have you – they are simply servants for their head. If he tells them to eat a spoon full of fecal matter, they surely will. Without cameras, but they will eat it, I am sure, unless there is hair in it, pardon me”.

In our opinion, authors of the report to administration of the president of RK made a mistake considering the shakedown of Atambaev towards Akorda and Nazarbaev personally, an act of Russia, Kremlin and Putin personally. But this mistake isn’t crucial. Even if the latter didn’t organize the shakedown, it is in their best interest, as it allows to put pressure on Akorda through someone else.

Considering that Atambaev after the meeting of November 17 2017 in St. Petersburg with Putin has fully gone rowdy , the head of the Russian state didn’t even try to stop him.

As a result the key to solving of Kazakh-Kyrgyz conflict at the highest level ended up shipped to Moscow. The question of how it will use it remains open. However the goings on can’t not cause interest if not concern among key world players, including USA, China and EU.

It is possible that exacerbation of Kazakh-Kyrgyz relations, organization of which Kazakh government structures suspect is related to Russia, Kremlin and Putin, became the main reason for why president Trump decided to meet with president of RK Nazarbaev. This meeting has already been announced during an upcoming visit of elbasy to US, on account of Kazakhstan’s chairmanship in the Security council of UN. So, it looks like this regional conflict will have far-reaching implication and other countries will be involved as well.


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